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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-09-11 10:42:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 110842 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 An AMSR2-GM1 microwave pass revealed that Rene's surface center is farther separated from the shrinking deep convection. The 0000 UTC FV3 and ECMWF model soundings indicate that east-southeasterly 30-35 kt shear near 300 mb is temporarily undercutting the diffluent southerly flow aloft. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt and is based on the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT estimates yielding 39 kt. The shear is expected to relax during the next 36 to 48 hours which should allow for gradual intensification. By mid-period, Rene is forecast to move into an area of increasing west-northwesterly shear, which should induce a weakening trend. It's worth noting that the ECMWF and the FV3 Decay SHIPS show very little strengthening through the period and it appears to be due to the cyclone moving into an even more inhibiting thermodynamic environment, in addition to the aforementioned shear. In fact, the relative humidity in the mid portions of the atmospheric is less than 49 percent beyond day 3. The NHC forecast sides with the various intensity consensus models and is above the statistical-dynamical guidance. Rene continues to move west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt within the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge extending from western Africa to the eastern Atlantic. A turn toward the northwest on Saturday, followed by a north-northwestward and northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast Sunday and Sunday night. Early next week, a subtropical ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of Rene, in response to Tropical Storm Paulette moving northeastward over the northern central Atlantic. This change in the steering pattern should cause the cyclone to begin a southwestward to west-southwestward drift through the end of the period. The official track forecast is close to the previous advisory through day 4, then it's nudged a little south to conform with the HCCA and TVCA multi-model aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 19.7N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 20.4N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 21.6N 42.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 23.2N 44.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 25.0N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 26.6N 46.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 27.4N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 26.9N 46.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 26.1N 48.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-09-11 10:42:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 110842 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-11 10:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 11 the center of Rene was located near 19.7, -38.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 17
2020-09-11 10:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 110841 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 ...RENE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 38.5W ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 38.5 West. Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Friday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday. A north-northwestward and northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the couple of days. Afterward, weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-09-11 10:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 110841 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 38.5W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 38.5W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 38.0W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.4N 40.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.6N 42.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 44.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.0N 45.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.6N 46.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 46.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 26.9N 46.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 26.1N 48.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 38.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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