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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 41
2015-10-07 22:33:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 072033 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015 Joaquin has begun its transition into an extratropical cyclone. The cyclone's cloud pattern has become rather asymmetric, with the center partially exposed on the west side of weakening deep convection. In addition, cold air is wrapping into the western periphery of the circulation, with a warm frontal band becoming better defined well northeast of the center. Earlier ASCAT data still showed a large area of 55 to 60 kt winds, so the initial wind speed is held at 60 kt. The storm should gradually lose strength while it moves over progressively colder waters north of the Gulf Stream. Deep convection should disappear tonight when the SSTs drop below 20C, and Joaquin is expected to become post-tropical at that time. Global models are in good agreement on the cyclone becoming a large extratropical low on Thursday when frontal features are forecast to form near the center. The official intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and remains in close agreement with the GFS forecast. Joaquin is speeding eastward at 32 kt, embedded in strong westerly flow north of the subtropical ridge, which should keep the cyclone moving to the east or east-northeast at a slower forward speed for another day or two. Thereafter, the cyclone should slow down even more and turn east-southeastward due to it coming under the influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western Europe. The guidance continues to migrate southward, and the official forecast is moved in that direction, near a blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the ECMWF models. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 12 hours and beyond are primarily based upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 41.5N 41.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 42.0N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/1800Z 42.7N 28.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0600Z 43.6N 23.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1800Z 43.8N 19.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z 43.0N 14.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z 41.5N 10.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-07 22:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN HAS BEGUN ITS TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 7 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 41.5, -41.0 with movement E at 37 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 41
2015-10-07 22:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 072033 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015 ...JOAQUIN HAS BEGUN ITS TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.5N 41.0W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was located near latitude 41.5 North, longitude 41.0 West. Joaquin is moving toward the east near 37 mph (59 km/h), and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected to continue for the next day or two with some decrease in forward speed forecast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Joaquin is forecast to lose tropical characteristics this evening, and to become a large extratropical cyclone by Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect Atlantic Canada during the next day or so. Swells affecting much of the eastern coast of the United States are now mostly associated with a non-tropical area of low pressure over the western Atlantic, and these swells are expected to continue for the next day or two. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in association with these swells. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2015-10-07 22:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 072033 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2100 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 6 14(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 41
2015-10-07 22:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 072032 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2100 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 41.0W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 32 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 160SE 140SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 270SE 270SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 420SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 41.0W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 43.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 42.0N 35.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 300SE 300SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 42.7N 28.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 270SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 43.6N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...300NE 280SE 240SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 43.8N 19.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...200NE 250SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 43.0N 14.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 180SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 41.5N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.5N 41.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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