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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 39
2015-10-07 10:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 070831 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 49.4W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 28 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 140SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT.......150NE 210SE 240SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 49.4W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 51.3W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 41.4N 43.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 150SE 150SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 240SE 240SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 42.4N 35.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 300SE 300SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 43.3N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 44.2N 23.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 44.0N 16.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...240NE 120SE 240SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 43.0N 12.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.5N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-07 04:57:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2015 02:57:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2015 02:52:44 GMT
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 38
2015-10-07 04:56:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 070255 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 Until just a couple of hours ago, Joaquin continued to display a tight inner core, with deep convection surrounding a 20 n mi diameter eye. The most recent geostationary infrared imagery is finally showing that the convection is becoming asymmetric with the 25 kt of tropospheric vertical shear adversely affecting the cyclone. The intensity remains 70 kt, since both the SAB and TAFB Dvorak Current Intensity values are unchanged. The hurricane is about to cross over the north wall of the Gulf Stream and will be traversing very chilly 21-22C waters by tomorrow. The combination of cold SSTs, dry air, and strong vertical shear should cause the deep convection to either completely dislocate or cease and the forecast calls for Joaquin to become a strong post-tropical cyclone in about a day. The FSU Cyclone Phase Space diagrams, based upon the global and regional models, suggest that Joaquin will gradually become more frontal and extratropical transition is anticipated by Thursday. Baroclinic forcing should allow for only a gradual winding down as depicted by the models, and dissipation is anticipated in about five days. Joaquin is moving toward the east-northeast at a rather quick pace of 25 kt, as it is being advected along by the mid-latitude westerlies. The system should accelerate east-northeastward for about 36 hours, before slowing down in the eastern north Atlantic. The track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered global and regional models through 72 hours. By day four, the guidance becomes divergent with some solutions turning northeastward toward Ireland and Great Britain, but most turning east-southeastward toward Portugal and Spain. This latter scenario is the basis for the track forecast at day 4. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts from 36 hours and beyond are based upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. A last-minute-arriving ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated that Joaquin continues to expand in size. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii analyses and forecasts were adjusted accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 40.0N 53.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 41.0N 47.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 42.1N 39.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/1200Z 43.4N 31.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0000Z 44.7N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0000Z 44.0N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0000Z 43.0N 13.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2015-10-07 04:53:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 070253 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-07 04:53:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 6 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 40.0, -53.1 with movement ENE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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