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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 37
2015-10-06 22:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 062038 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 ...JOAQUIN RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.0N 56.9W ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 56.9 West. Joaquin is moving toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joaquin is expected to lose tropical characteristics on Wednesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are affecting much of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast of the United States and are increasing along coastal areas of Atlantic Canada, and these swells are expected to continue for the next day or two. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in association with these swells. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 37
2015-10-06 22:38:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 062038 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 56.9W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 240SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 360SE 420SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 56.9W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 58.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 40.4N 51.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 240SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 200SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 230SE 200SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 44.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...140NE 160SE 130SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 310SE 270SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 46.5N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...220NE 300SE 240SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 48.0N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 49.0N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 56.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-06 17:05:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2015 14:58:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2015 15:05:47 GMT
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 36
2015-10-06 16:43:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 061443 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 Joaquin is in a state of gradual decay. Although an eye feature is still occasionally visible, there has been some erosion of the inner-core deep convection. A series of microwaves images this morning indicate some eastward tilt of the vortex with height, and there is evidence of dry air entrainment into the inner core. Dvorak intensity estimates are slowly decreasing, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 70 kt. An increase in southwesterly shear and cooler waters along Joaquin's track should cause further weakening during the next few days. Cooler and drier air behind a low-level baroclinic zone currently draped to the north of the cyclone should gradually be advected into Joaquin's circulation during the next 24 to 48 hours, and extratropical transition is expected to be complete in about 36 hours. The new intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus through 36 hours and then a bit above that after that time. Recent fixes indicate that Joaquin has is accelerating northeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 055/16. The cyclone is expected to further accelerate toward the east-northeast as it becomes fully embedded in a belt of nearly zonal middle- to upper-tropospheric flow during the next few days. After extratropical transition, Joaquin should experience a significant deceleration when it approaches the British Isles. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 48 hours, with somewhat greater spread after that time. The new track forecast is about the same as the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus for the remainder of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 38.3N 59.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 39.5N 55.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 40.8N 48.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 42.0N 40.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 43.3N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1200Z 46.2N 21.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1200Z 49.3N 14.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z 49.8N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-06 16:43:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN SLOWLY WEAKENING WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 6 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 38.3, -59.6 with movement NE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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