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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 36
2015-10-06 16:43:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 061442 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 ...JOAQUIN SLOWLY WEAKENING WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.3N 59.6W ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 59.6 West. Joaquin is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast with some further increase in forward speed is expected later today through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow weakening is forecast, and Joaquin is expected to become extratropical late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect Bermuda the next day or so. Swells are affecting much of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast of the United States and are increasing along coastal areas of Atlantic Canada, and these swells are expected to continue for the next day or two. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in association with these swells. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2015-10-06 16:43:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 061442 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 36
2015-10-06 16:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 061440 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 59.6W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......190NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 420SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 59.6W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 60.4W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 39.5N 55.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 210SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.8N 48.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 210SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.0N 40.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 230SE 210SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.3N 32.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 150SE 150SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 300SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 46.2N 21.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 240SE 240SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 49.3N 14.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 49.8N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 59.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-06 10:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2015 08:38:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2015 08:50:48 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-06 10:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC WELL AWAY FROM LAND... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 6 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 37.5, -61.0 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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