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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-07 10:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2015 08:34:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2015 08:50:44 GMT
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 39
2015-10-07 10:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 070832 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015 The organization of Joaquin continues to slowly decrease, with the central convection now present only in the northeastern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now 65 kt, and that is the advisory intensity. Joaquin is now moving over colder water north of the Gulf Stream, and the cyclone is gradually becoming embedded in a baroclinic zone. This combination should cause continued weakening and eventual extratropical transition. The current expectation is that the central convection will dissipate before the cyclone develops fronts, so the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to become post-tropical for about 12 hours before becoming extratropical. The new intensity forecast shows a slightly faster weakening than the previous forecast, and calls for Joaquin or its remnants to dissipate by 120 hours. Joaquin continues moving rapidly east-northeastward as it is embedded in strong westerly flow north of the subtropical ridge. This motion should continued for another 36 hours or so. After that time, the guidance is now in better agreement that the cyclone should turn decelerate and turn east-southeastward as it comes under the influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western Europe. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 24 hours and beyond are based upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 40.5N 49.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 41.4N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 42.4N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/1800Z 43.3N 28.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0600Z 44.2N 23.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z 44.0N 16.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z 43.0N 12.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-07 10:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 7 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 40.5, -49.4 with movement ENE at 32 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 39
2015-10-07 10:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 070832 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015 ...JOAQUIN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.5N 49.4W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 40.5 North, longitude 49.4 West. Joaquin is moving toward the east-northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, and additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Joaquin is expected to lose tropical characteristics by tomorrow evening, and to become a large extratropical cyclone by Thursday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect Bermuda and Atlantic Canada during the next day or so. Swells affecting much of the eastern coast of the United States are now mostly associated with a non-tropical area of low pressure over the Western Atlantic, and these swells are expected to continue for the next day or two. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in association with these swells. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2015-10-07 10:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 070832 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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