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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-07 16:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2015 14:42:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2015 14:50:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 40
2015-10-07 16:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 071443 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015 Satellite images indicate that Joaquin continues to slowly weaken. The low-level center is now about half a degree west of the mid-level circulation, with an area of deep convection noted. Dvorak estimates are lower, so the initial wind speed is reduced to 60 kt. A gradual spin-down of the cyclone is expected while Joaquin moves over colder waters north of the Gulf Stream. Deep convection should probably disappear tonight when the SSTs drop below 20C, so the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to become post-tropical at that time. The cyclone will likely become a more classic extratropical low on Thursday when frontal features are forecast to form near the center. The official intensity forecast is very close to the previous one, and is in closest agreement with the GFS forecast. Joaquin continues moving rapidly east-northeastward as it is embedded in strong westerly flow north of the subtropical ridge. This motion should continue for another 24 hours or so. After that time, the guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone should decelerate and turn east-southeastward due to it coming under the influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western Europe. The official forecast is adjusted southward, and is near a blend of the GFS and the ECMWF models. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 12 hours and beyond are primarily based upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 41.0N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 41.8N 39.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/1200Z 42.6N 32.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 09/0000Z 43.5N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1200Z 44.2N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z 43.5N 15.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1200Z 42.5N 11.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-07 16:41:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 7 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 41.0, -45.6 with movement ENE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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joaquin
Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 40
2015-10-07 16:41:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 071441 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015 ...JOAQUIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.0N 45.6W ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was located near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 45.6 West. Joaquin is moving toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two with some decrease in forward speed forecast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Joaquin is forecast to lose tropical characteristics this evening, and to become a large extratropical cyclone by Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect Atlantic Canada during the next day or so. Swells affecting much of the eastern coast of the United States are now mostly associated with a non-tropical area of low pressure over the Western Atlantic, and these swells are expected to continue for the next day or two. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in association with these swells. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 40
2015-10-07 16:41:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 071441 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 45.6W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 140SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT.......150NE 210SE 240SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 420SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 45.6W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 47.6W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 41.8N 39.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 300SE 300SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 42.6N 32.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 240SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 43.5N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 180SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 44.2N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 43.5N 15.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 42.5N 11.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N 45.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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