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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 38
2015-10-07 04:53:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 070252 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 ...JOAQUIN MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.0N 53.1W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 53.1 West. Joaquin is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h) and the system is expected to continue toward the east-northeast at a faster forward speed through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Joaquin is expected to lose tropical characteristics by tomorrow evening, and to become a large extratropical cyclone by Thursday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are affecting much of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast of the United States and are increasing along coastal areas of Atlantic Canada, and these swells are expected to continue for the next day or two. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in association with these swells. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 38
2015-10-07 04:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 070252 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 53.1W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 140SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT.......150NE 210SE 240SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 53.1W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 54.9W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 41.0N 47.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.1N 39.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 270SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.4N 31.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 44.7N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...120NE 160SE 130SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 240SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 43.0N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 53.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 37
2015-10-06 23:37:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 062136 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 37...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED TO 20 KT IN SECOND PARAGRAPH Joaquin continues to have a very impressive cloud pattern with an intermittent eye on visible images. In fact, microwave data still shows a distinct eye feature surrounded by convective bands. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed today, and given the currently well- organized cloud pattern, the initial intensity is kept at 70 kt. Both cold sea surface temperatures and strong shear should cause Joaquin to begin losing tropical characteristics between 24 and 36 hours, and after that time, the hurricane is forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone. Joaquin is fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and is racing toward the east-northeast at about 20 kt. Track guidance is tightly packed, showing Joaquin moving on the same general track for the next few days with some increase in forward speed. However, Joaquin should decrease in forward speed by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus, and very near the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 39.0N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 40.4N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 42.0N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 43.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1800Z 44.0N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1800Z 46.5N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1800Z 48.0N 13.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z 49.0N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-06 22:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2015 20:41:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2015 20:50:48 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-06 22:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD COOLER WATERS... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 6 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 39.0, -56.9 with movement ENE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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