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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 35
2015-10-06 10:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 060836 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015 ...JOAQUIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC WELL AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.5N 61.0W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM NNE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 61.0 West. Joaquin is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected today, with a rapid east-northeastward motion expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joaquin is expected to become an extratropical cyclone Wednesday or Wednesday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect Bermuda and portions of the Bahamas during the next day or so. Swells are affecting much of the east coast of the United States and the coast of Atlantic Canada and should continue during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is located well to the east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2015-10-06 10:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 060836 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 35
2015-10-06 10:35:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 060835 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 61.0W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......190NE 190SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 420SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 61.0W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 38.8N 57.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 40.2N 51.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 41.6N 43.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 210SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 42.8N 35.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 150SE 150SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 300SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 45.5N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 240SE 240SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 47.5N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 51.0N 12.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 61.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-06 05:09:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2015 02:50:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2015 03:05:46 GMT
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 34
2015-10-06 04:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 060252 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015 While Joaquin's eye is no longer present in the shortwave infrared imagery from the GOES-East geostationary satellite this evening, a distinct eye has been visible in the microwave imagery from the SSMIS polar orbiting satellite passes at 2231Z and 2316Z. There is even a suggestion of a concentric eyewall at about a 50 nm radius. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from SAB and TAFB remain at 4.5, supporting continuing with an intensity of 75 kt. The wind radii were expanded slightly based upon a CIRA AMSU wind radii analysis from 2104Z. Joaquin is currently embedded in moderate southwesterly vertical shear with somewhat dry mid-tropospheric air, and is traversing over SSTs near 27C. During the next day, the shear picks up substantially. However, with Joaquin moving in the same direction as the shear vector, the negative impact of the shear is lessened as indicated in the SHIPS output. Within two days, Joaquin will move north of the Gulf Stream and will encounter very cold waters while the shear increases even more. This would typically lead toward a quick decay of a tropical cyclone, but Joaquin is expected to transform into an extratropical cyclone in about 48 hours. The baroclinic processes should allow Joaquin instead to slowly decay. The intensity forecast is based upon the tightly clustered IVCN multi-model consensus through 36 hours, and then is based on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center for the 48-120 hour period. The initial motion of Joaquin is 35 deg/12 kt, fairly confidently known because of the microwave fixes. Joaquin is being swept up in the mid-latitude westerlies and should begin accelerating off toward the east-northeast during the next two to three days. The track prediction is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN multi-model consensus through 36 hours, and then is based on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center for the 48-120 hour period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 36.8N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 38.1N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 39.6N 54.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 41.0N 47.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 42.0N 38.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0000Z 45.0N 23.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0000Z 46.0N 17.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z 48.0N 12.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Landsea
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