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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-09-29 17:30:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 15:30:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 15:30:00 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-09-29 17:28:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:30 AM CDT Sat Sep 29 the center of Sergio was located near 12.4, -102.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 1
2018-09-29 17:28:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 271 WTPZ31 KNHC 291528 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 1030 AM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1030 AM CDT...1530 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 102.1W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1030 AM CDT (1530 UTC), the center of newly-formed Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 102.1 West. Sergio is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A generally westward motion is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next several days, and Sergio could become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-09-29 17:28:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1530 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 302 FOPZ11 KNHC 291528 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1530 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 AT 1530Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 1(19) X(19) 10N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 13(27) 1(28) X(28) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) 1(21) 10N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 10N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 33(57) 4(61) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 3(31) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 19(41) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-09-29 17:27:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1530 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 982 WTPZ21 KNHC 291527 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1530 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.1W AT 29/1530Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.1W AT 29/1530Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 101.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.7N 103.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.9N 105.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.9N 107.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.8N 109.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.0N 113.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 102.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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