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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-09-30 22:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 110 WTPZ41 KNHC 302035 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 Satellite imagery over the past several hours as well as microwave and scatterometer data indicate that the center of Sergio is farther south than previously analyzed. The deep convection near the center has become ragged in appearance and elongated from east-west. However, microwave data continues to show a well-defined mid-level circulation, and satellite intensity estimates are unanimously supporting 55 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is now 260/11 kt, partially due to adjustment of the center farther south. Otherwise, there are no changes in the forecast track philosophy from the previous advisory. For the next couple of days, Sergio should move generally westward or just south of due west around the southern periphery of a large deep-layer subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward across the eastern Pacific. By 48 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough moving southeastward along and offshore of the western U.S. will erode the western part of the ridge. This will allow the cyclone to turn west-northwestward to northwestward from 48- to 96-hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Very near the end of the forecast period, the trough should shift eastward and low- to mid-level ridging should build to the northwest of the cyclone. This pattern change should induce a more westward turn by 120 hours. Despite the current ragged appearance of the cyclone, the environment of low-shear, high-moisture, and warm waters are expected to support a period of rapid intensification sometime within the next 36 hours or so. By 36 hours, northeasterly shear is expected to develop over the storm and increase to 25 kt by 48 hours. This should at least limit the rate of intensification if not weaken the cyclone slightly from 48- to 72-hours. After that time, global models indicate that the shear will lessen to under 10 kt for the remainder of the forecast period. There may be a window of time beginning after 72 hours where some additional strengthening could occur. By 96 hours, the system will then be moving over waters of 26-27 C very near a gradient of cooler SSTs just to the north. The current intensity forecast calls for a steadying of intensity after the shear abates, then a slow weakening trend commences by the end of the period due to cooler SSTs. Other than a slight delay in Sergio becoming a hurricane, the intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous forecast and remains close to the dynamical model consensus. Based on this intensity forecast, Sergio is still forecast to become a major hurricane on Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 11.5N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 11.4N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 11.2N 110.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 11.4N 112.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 11.9N 114.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 13.8N 117.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 120.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 17.3N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-09-30 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 the center of Sergio was located near 11.5, -106.3 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 6
2018-09-30 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 946 WTPZ31 KNHC 302034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 ...SERGIO SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 106.3W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 106.3 West. Sergio is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected for the next couple of days with a turn toward the west-northwest expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Sergio is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-09-30 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 945 WTPZ21 KNHC 302034 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 106.3W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 106.3W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.4N 108.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.2N 110.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.4N 112.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.9N 114.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 117.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.3N 122.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO
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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-09-30 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 984 FOPZ11 KNHC 302034 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CLIPPERTON IS 34 6 77(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) CLIPPERTON IS 50 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 110W 34 3 60(63) 6(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 10N 110W 50 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 110W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 110W 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 10N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 28(35) 6(41) 1(42) X(42) 10N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 10N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 31(41) 3(44) 1(45) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 49(64) 6(70) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 6(39) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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