je.st
news
Tag: sergio
Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-09-30 16:57:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 201 WTPZ21 KNHC 301456 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 105.4W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 105.4W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 104.8W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.1N 107.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.8N 109.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.7N 111.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.0N 113.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.6N 116.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-09-30 10:55:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Sep 2018 08:55:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Sep 2018 08:55:33 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
sergio
Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-09-30 10:54:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 130 WTPZ41 KNHC 300854 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 Microwave and infrared satellite images, along with scatterometer wind data, indicate that Sergio has continued to become better organized, with strong convection now more concentrated near the center. However, scatterometer data showed that the inner-core wind field is still rather loose and not particularly well-defined quite yet. The initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, which is supported by a 0536 UTC ASCAT pass that contained a few 45-kt vectors east of the center. The initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. For the next 48 hours or so, Sergio should move generally westward along the southern periphery of a large, deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends from Mexico westward across the eastern and central Pacific. By 72 hours, a broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to drop southward and southeastward over the southwestern U.S. and the northeastern Pacific, producing a break in the ridge which will allow Sergio to move toward the northwest at a slower forward speed through 120 hours. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but slightly south of the previous advisory track, and lies close to an average of the consensus models TVCE, HCCA, and FSSE. Sergio is forecast to remain in a low-shear, warm-water, and high-moisture environment for the next 36 hours or so, during which time rapid intensification is expected. In the 48- to 72-hour period, the vertical shear is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF global models to increase from the northeast at around 25 kt, which should act to cap the strengthening process, and possibly even induce some weakening. By 96 and 120 hours, the shear is expected to decrease to 5 kt or less, which would favor re-strengthening. However, due to the uncertainty in how much Sergio's inner-core wind field will be disrupted by the aforementioned strong shear, the intensity forecast is simply leveled off at 95 kt at 72 hours and beyond. The official intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN consensus model, which is lower than the more robust HCCA and FSSE models, which bring Sergio to near category 4 strength in 36-48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 12.0N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 12.0N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 11.9N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 11.6N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 11.7N 112.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 13.0N 115.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 15.2N 118.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 17.1N 120.8W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-09-30 10:53:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 278 FOPZ11 KNHC 300853 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 26 5(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 105W 34 7 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CLIPPERTON IS 34 2 20(22) 38(60) 3(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 110W 34 1 9(10) 37(47) 7(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) 10N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 110W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 22(31) 3(34) X(34) 10N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 10N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 33(37) 11(48) 1(49) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 18(59) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 12(28) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-09-30 10:53:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 the center of Sergio was located near 12.0, -104.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
sergio
Sites : [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] next »