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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 4
2018-09-30 10:53:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 612 WTPZ31 KNHC 300853 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 ...SERGIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 104.3W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 104.3 West. Sergio is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected for the next couple of days with a turn toward the west-northwest possible on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Sergio is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and be near major hurricane strength on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-09-30 10:53:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 611 WTPZ21 KNHC 300853 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 104.3W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 104.3W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.0N 105.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.9N 108.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.6N 110.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.7N 112.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.0N 115.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 15.2N 118.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 17.1N 120.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-09-30 04:40:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Sep 2018 02:40:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Sep 2018 02:40:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-09-30 04:40:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 273 WTPZ41 KNHC 300240 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 Satellite images indicate that Sergio has become better organized during the past several hours with more concentrated convection near the center. Intensity estimates are slightly higher than the past advisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt, closest to the CIMSS SATCON. The storm should be in a low-shear, warm-water, and high-moisture environment for the next 2 or 3 days. While there are no signs of an inner core forming yet, that usually doesn't stop steady intensification, and rapid strengthening is a distinct possibility in a day or two. Thus the intensity forecast is raised from the previous one and is close to the consensus. Although there are a number of reliable models showing a higher peak intensity, an uncertain environment at long range leads me to a more conservative forecast. It would not be surprising at all if my prediction ended up being too low, given the intense nature of this eastern Pacific hurricane season. The initial motion is close to the prevous one, 275/9. Sergio should be steered generally westward for the next two or three days by the subtropical ridge over Mexico. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough over California, and this should lead to a turn toward the northwest. Similar to the previous advisory, the track guidance has shifted slightly south and west, so the official forecast is nudged in that direction at most time periods. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 12.3N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 12.4N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 12.3N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 12.0N 109.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 11.8N 111.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 12.9N 114.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 15.0N 117.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-09-30 04:39:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 863 FOPZ11 KNHC 300239 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 5 13(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 105W 34 5 9(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 6( 6) 36(42) 15(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 19(23) 25(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) 10N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 6(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 5(31) X(31) 10N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 10N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 22(56) 2(58) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) 1(26) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 22(50) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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