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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 7

2018-10-01 04:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 903 WTPZ41 KNHC 010237 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 Overall, Sergio has changed little in organization over the past several hours. The convective pattern is comprised of a ragged band wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center, with the strongest convection to the north of the center. Recent microwave data show that the mid-level circulation center seen earlier has lost some definition. However, the low-level circulation center seems to be becoming better defined. The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on unchanged satellite intensity estimates. The initial motion remains 260/11. For the next 36 h or so, Sergio should move westward or just south of due westward around the southern periphery of a large deep-layer subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward across the eastern Pacific. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough moving southeastward along and offshore of the western U.S. will erode the western part of the ridge. This development will allow Sergio turn west-northwestward to northwestward with a gradual decrease in forward speed. The new forecast track is near the various consensus models and is an update of the previous track. Conditions appear favorable for Sergio to rapidly intensify in the next 36 h if the cyclone can become well enough organized to take advantage of the environment. This part of the intensity forecast presumes this will happen and is unchanged from the previous forecast of quick strengthening. From 36-48 h, a burst of northeasterly shear is expected to affect Sergio, which should at least slow intensification. Based on this and the shear letting up at 72 h, the intensity forecast is tweaked to show the peak intensity after the shear decreases. After 72 h, decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause a gradual weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 11.6N 107.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 11.4N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 11.3N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 11.6N 113.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 14.5N 118.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 16.5N 120.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)

2018-10-01 04:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SERGIO MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 the center of Sergio was located near 11.6, -107.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 7

2018-10-01 04:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 729 WTPZ31 KNHC 010236 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 ...SERGIO MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 107.3W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 107.3 West. Sergio is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Monday night. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Sergio is expected to become a hurricane late tonight or on Monday and a major hurricane by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 7

2018-10-01 04:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 730 WTPZ21 KNHC 010236 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 107.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 107.3W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.4N 109.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.3N 111.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.6N 113.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 120.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 107.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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