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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-10-01 22:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 648 FOPZ11 KNHC 012033 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CLIPPERTON IS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 10N 110W 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 115W 34 2 26(28) 7(35) 2(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 10N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 6(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 64(82) 6(88) X(88) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 49(51) 8(59) X(59) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 6(36) 1(37) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 2(17) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 13(34) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 25(37) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-10-01 16:36:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 14:36:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 14:36:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-10-01 16:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018 009 WTPZ41 KNHC 011433 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018 Sergio is almost a hurricane. Satellite images indicate that the central convection has been increasing in intensity during the past several hours, but there are still no indications of an eye in that data. Microwave imagery does show an eye feature, however. The outer bands are not particularly well organized, and there are some dry slots beyond the inner core. The initial intensity is held at 60 kt, following a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the models have been too bullish on Sergio strengthening during the past couple of days. This could be due to the aforementioned dry slots that were not well predicted by both the statistical and dynamical guidance. Looking ahead to the next several days, the environmental conditions are mixed. The wind shear and SSTs appear conducive for strengthening during the next couple of days, so steady intensification is predicted during that time period. However, as seen during the past day or two, dry air could slow the intensification rate. Beyond a couple of days, the models show a brief increase in shear and a steady decrease in mid-level moisture and SSTs. These conditions will likely end the opportunity for strengthening and cause a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one, and it lies between the usually reliable HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Sergio is moving westward at 10 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. A continued westward motion is expected for another day followed by a turn to the west-northwest and then the northwest as the western side of the ridge weakens due to a large-scale trough near the southwestern United States. By the end of the forecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the north of Sergio, which should cause a turn back to the left. The models are in very good agreement overall, and little change has been made to the previous forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 11.5N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 11.4N 111.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 11.7N 113.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 13.3N 116.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 15.3N 119.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 17.0N 121.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 18.0N 124.3W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-01 16:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Oct 1 the center of Sergio was located near 11.5, -109.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 9
2018-10-01 16:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018 444 WTPZ31 KNHC 011433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018 ...SERGIO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 109.5W ABOUT 625 MI...1000 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 790 MI...1265 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 109.5 West. Sergio is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Sergio is forecast to become a hurricane later today, and a major hurricane by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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