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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-01 10:53:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Oct 1 the center of Sergio was located near 11.5, -108.6 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 8
2018-10-01 10:53:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018 436 WTPZ31 KNHC 010853 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018 ...SERGIO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 108.6W ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 108.6 West. Sergio is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Sergio is expected to become a hurricane later today, and a major hurricane by Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 8
2018-10-01 10:52:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 025 WTPZ21 KNHC 010852 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.6W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.6W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.4N 110.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.8N 116.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.9N 118.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 121.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 17.9N 123.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 108.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-10-01 04:38:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 02:38:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 02:38:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-10-01 04:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 935 FOPZ11 KNHC 010237 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CLIPPERTON IS 34 40 40(80) X(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) CLIPPERTON IS 50 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 110W 34 5 54(59) 2(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 10N 110W 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) 10N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 17(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) 10N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 28(49) 1(50) 1(51) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) 1(14) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 36(66) 3(69) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) 3(37) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 2(21) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 16(31) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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