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Tropical Storm LISA Graphics
2016-09-20 22:43:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2016 20:43:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2016 20:42:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-09-20 22:43:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 202042 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 During the past six hours, a central dense overcast (CDO) feature has developed over and to the east of Lisa's low-level center. The upper-level outflow has also improved, albeit elongated northeast- to-southwest. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt, which is a blend of a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, a UW-CIMSS ADT values of T2.9/43 kt, and a 1611Z AMSU estimate of 44 kt. The initial motion estimate is 315/10 kt. Lisa has made a jog to the right of the previous forecast track and model guidance, which is most likely due to the center reforming closer to the strongest convection. Other than shifting the forecast track to the right of the previous advisory track to account for the more eastward initial position, the forecast rationale remains unchanged. The latest NHC model guidance continues to indicate a steady northwestward motion for the next four days toward a break in the subtropical ridge between 30W-40W longitude. On day 5, Lisa is expected to move northward as the ridge erodes eastward. The new NHC forecast track lies down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope through day 4, and then follows a blend of the ECMWF and HWRF models on day 5 since those models maintain the cyclone longer. Lisa has another 36 hours or so to strengthen some more before the large-scale environment becomes very unfavorable, which will be characterized by southwesterly vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt, drier and more stable air, and SSTs less than 27 deg C. It is possible that Lisa could end up being a little stronger between the 24- and 36-hour forecast periods. By 48 hours, however, steady weakening is expected to ensue, with Lisa becoming a remnant low pressure system by 120 hours. The intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 16.4N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 17.2N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 18.1N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 19.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 20.0N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 22.7N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 25.2N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 29.2N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm LISA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-09-20 22:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 202042 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 2100 UTC TUE SEP 20 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm LISA (AT3/AL132016)
2016-09-20 22:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LISA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 20 the center of LISA was located near 16.4, -31.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm LISA Public Advisory Number 5
2016-09-20 22:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 202041 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 ...LISA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 31.0W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 31.0 West. Lisa is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through Wednesday, with steady weakening expected to begin on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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