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Tropical Storm LISA Graphics
2016-09-22 11:11:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2016 08:44:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2016 09:05:07 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm LISA (AT3/AL132016)
2016-09-22 10:47:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LISA FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE IT MOVES TOWARD A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 22 the center of LISA was located near 19.9, -34.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-09-22 10:40:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220840 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016 As anticipated, the southwesterly shear has been gradually increasing, and the center of Lisa is located on the western edge of an area of very deep convection convection. Based on the average of Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt in this advisory. Given that the shear is forecast to increase further, and the fact that Lisa is heading for cooler waters, the NHC forecast calls for weakening. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant low in about 3 days, but this process could even occur much sooner. The intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one. The steering pattern has not changed, and Lisa is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees around the western side of a weak subtropical ridge. This general track should continue for the next 2 to 3 days until a large mid-latitude trough amplifies and force Lisa or its remnants to recurve. The NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and follows very closely the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 19.9N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 20.9N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 22.3N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 23.6N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 25.0N 38.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 27.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 31.5N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 35.0N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm LISA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2016-09-22 10:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 220840 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0900 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Advisory Number 11
2016-09-22 10:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 220839 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0900 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 34.0W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 34.0W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 33.5W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.9N 34.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.3N 36.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.6N 37.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.0N 38.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 27.5N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 31.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 35.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 34.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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