je.st
news
Tag: lisa
Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-09-21 16:34:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 211434 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016 The cloud pattern of Lisa has not changed much since the previous advisory. A 0911 UTC SSMIS image suggested that the low-level center was located on the western edge of the central convection. The 12Z Dvorak Data-T numbers from SAB and TAFB decreased and a partial ASCAT-B pass from 1115 UTC only showed 30-35 kt winds in the northeastern quadrant. However, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt given the lack of clear evidence of weakening and in agreement with the the latest Dvorak CI numbers of T3.0/45 kt. There is only a small opportunity for the cyclone to strengthen before the shear increases even further in 24 to 36 hours. Weakening is expected after that time, and later in the period, as the mid-level environment becomes quite dry, the cyclone should weaken to a remnant low. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is near the middle of the guidance in the first 36 hours and then is near or below the weaker LGEM solution after that time. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/07, given the lack of confidence in the location of the center. Lisa will move northwestward during the next 72 hours into a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic, and then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies on days 4 and 5. The global models are in generally good agreement on this scenario, with the ECMWF lying on the left side of the guidance cluster and the GFS shifting to the right this cycle. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one but has been adjusted for the initial position and motion. This forecast is near a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks and is well to the left of the GFDL and HWRF models, which lie nearly 200 n mi east of the rest of the guidance at days 3 and 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 18.0N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 18.6N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 19.7N 34.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 20.9N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 22.3N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 25.0N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 28.5N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z 34.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
discussion
storm
lisa
Summary for Tropical Storm LISA (AT3/AL132016)
2016-09-21 16:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LISA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 21 the center of LISA was located near 18.0, -32.5 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
lisa
tropical
Tropical Storm LISA Public Advisory Number 8
2016-09-21 16:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 211432 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016 ...LISA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 32.5W ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 32.5 West. Lisa is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with a slight increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, with gradual weakening expected to begin on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
public
storm
lisa
Tropical Storm LISA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2016-09-21 16:31:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 211431 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1500 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Advisory Number 8
2016-09-21 16:31:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 211431 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1500 UTC WED SEP 21 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 32.5W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 45SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 32.5W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 32.2W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.6N 33.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.7N 34.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.9N 36.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.3N 38.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.0N 41.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 28.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 34.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 32.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
storm
lisa
advisory
Sites : [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] next »