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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 15
2014-09-15 04:55:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150254 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 53.3W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 53.3W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 52.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.2N 54.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.2N 57.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.4N 56.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 37.4N 51.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 190SE 130SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 41.2N 42.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 41.2N 36.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 53.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-09-14 22:32:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 142032 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 Edouard has become better organized this afternoon. The eye of the hurricane has again made an appearance in satellite images, and deep convection surrounding the center has increased in intensity and coverage during the past few hours. NOAA hurricane hunters investigated the system this afternoon and found maximum flight- level winds of 90 kt and SFMR winds of 68 kt. These data and the consensus Dvorak classifications of 4.5/77 kt at 1800 UTC, support raising the initial wind speed to 75 kt. Additional strengthening seems likely during the next couple of days while the hurricane remains over warm water and the shear lessens somewhat. The only potential inhibiting factor is the influence of dry air that is seen wrapping into the eastern side of the circulation. Steady weakening is expected beyond a couple of days when the cyclone moves over much cooler water and into a stable air mass, which will eventually cause extratropical transition to occur in about 5 days. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast, with the current forecast showing a peak intensity in about two days followed by a steady decline after that. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 300/13 kt, steered by a subtropical ridge centered to its north. This ridge is expected to weaken and shift eastward, and that should cause Edouard to gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days. By mid-week, Edouard is expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude zonal flow that will cause the cyclone to turn toward the east. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west for the next few days, toward the latest guidance, and is similar to the previous advisory at 96 and 120 h. The NASA Global Hawk is currently dropping numerous dropsondes into and around the circulation of Edouard. These data will be useful in analyzing the intensity and structure of the hurricane, and should help the models better initialize the cyclone and its environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 25.4N 52.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 26.4N 53.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 27.8N 55.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 29.3N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 31.2N 56.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 35.9N 53.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 40.1N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 41.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2014-09-14 22:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 142031 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-14 22:31:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 14 the center of EDOUARD was located near 25.4, -52.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 14
2014-09-14 22:31:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 142031 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 ...EDOUARD STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 52.1W ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND EDOUARD COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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