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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 23
2014-09-17 04:43:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170243 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 A 2145 UTC WindSat 37 GHZ composite image revealed two concentric rings, with both the inner and outer rings containing hurricane force winds as observed by a NOAA P-3 aircraft. Therefore, the 64- kt wind radii have been adjusted outward to 70 n mi over the southeast and southwest quadrants. Additionally, an earlier lower fuselage radar image from the NOAA P-3 indicated that the highest reflectivity DBZ values occurred in these quadrants. The initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory and is a compromise of the highest SFMR-observed surface wind of 73 kt, a peak flight-level wind of 81 kt, and a blend of Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Gradual weakening is expected through the forecast period as the cyclone quickly moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and within increasing westerly shear. The intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous package and closely resembles the IVCN intensity consensus. Edouard should lose its tropical characteristics and become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days, or less, due to the aforementioned cooler water and vertical shear. Through the remainder of the forecast, the large-scale models all agree upon Edouard becoming absorbed within an extensive mid-latitude baroclinic zone. The current motion of the cyclone is estimated to be northeastward, or 035/15. Edouard will continue to accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward during the next 36 hours within the mid-tropospheric flow on the northwestern and northern side of a mid-Atlantic high pressure area. Afterward, an eastward motion is expected with further acceleration. A rather abrupt reduction in forward speed with a turn toward the east-southeast is expected as Edouard rounds the western periphery of a large baroclinic low situated to the west of the Iberian peninsula. The official NHC forecast is nudged just a bit to the right of the previous forecast track at days 4 and 5, and is close to the TVCA multi-model consensus and the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP)/National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) project 133 member multi-model ensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 33.5N 56.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 35.7N 54.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 38.4N 49.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 40.2N 44.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 40.5N 40.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 40.0N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/0000Z 38.5N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 22/0000Z 35.5N 31.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2014-09-17 04:42:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 170242 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-17 04:42:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD WEAKENING AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 16 the center of EDOUARD was located near 33.5, -56.4 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 23
2014-09-17 04:42:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170242 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 ...EDOUARD WEAKENING AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.5N 56.4W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1580 MI...2540 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES NORTH OF FLORIDA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG MOST OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 23
2014-09-17 04:40:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170240 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 56.4W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 70SE 70SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 160SE 130SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 280SE 240SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 56.4W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.7N 54.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 70SE 70SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 38.4N 49.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 160SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 40.2N 44.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 160SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.5N 40.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 160SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 40.0N 37.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 180SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 38.5N 33.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 35.5N 31.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 56.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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