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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-09-27 04:52:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 339 WTNT42 KNHC 270251 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 Strengthening vertical shear is beginning to take its toll on Kirk, with the low-level center displaced to the west of the deep convection. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that the central pressure has risen to 1002 mb, with maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 56 kt and believable SFMR winds as high as 44 kt. Based on these wind data, Kirk's initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt. Vertical shear is forecast to increase further, reaching over 30 kt in about 24 hours, which should cause Kirk to continue weakening over the next day or two. And, based on the latest global model guidance, the cyclone could open up into a trough any time after passing by the Lesser Antilles. The new NHC intensity forecast is mainly an update of the previous one to account for the lower initial intensity, and it continues to closely follow the intensity consensus, IVCN, and the HCCA guidance. Dissipation is now shown by day 4, but as mentioned above, this could occur a lot sooner. Kirk appears to have slowed down just a little, with an initial motion toward the west-northwest, or 285/14 kt. Ridging to the north should maintain Kirk on this general trajectory, with perhaps just a slight deceleration as it moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea. There are some speed differences among the models, with the ECMWF showing a weaker and faster system, while the GFS shows a slightly stronger and slower system. The NHC track forecast is between these two solutions and is closest to the HCCA model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 13.0N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 13.6N 58.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 14.4N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 15.1N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 15.6N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 16.0N 69.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-09-27 04:51:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 203 FONT12 KNHC 270251 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0300 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 1 6( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) AVES 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 8(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) AVES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 1 20(21) 19(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) DOMINICA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 1 38(39) 14(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) MARTINIQUE 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 1 25(26) 10(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARBADOS 34 5 29(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-27 04:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KIRK A LITTLE WEAKER... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 26 the center of Kirk was located near 13.0, -57.0 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-09-27 04:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 197 WTNT22 KNHC 270250 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0300 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK AS ADDITIONAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 57.0W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 57.0W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 56.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.6N 58.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.4N 60.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.1N 63.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.6N 65.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.0N 69.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 57.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 13
2018-09-27 04:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 196 WTNT32 KNHC 270250 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KIRK A LITTLE WEAKER... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 57.0W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or watches could be issued tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 57.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk will move across the Lesser Antilles within the tropical storm warning area Thursday or Thursday evening. Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days, but Kirk is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the north and east of the center. The minimum central pressure based on the latest aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday afternoon. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Across eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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