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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2018-09-27 10:43:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Sep 2018 08:43:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Sep 2018 09:22:01 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-09-27 10:40:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 162 WTNT42 KNHC 270840 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 Kirk has not changed much overnight. Although the storm is producing a large area of deep convection, the cloud pattern is not very well organized with the center located near the southwestern edge of the thunderstorms. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 20 kt of southwesterly shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters passed through the northeastern quadrant of Kirk a few hours ago and found winds to support the same intensity of 45 kt. In addition, quality control of a ship report that came in around the same time also supports that intensity. Another Air Force plane is scheduled to investigate Kirk later this morning. A large fetch of strong upper-level westerly or southwesterly winds are over the entire Caribbean Sea, and Kirk will be moving into these conditions during the next few days. These very hostile winds aloft should cause Kirk to steadily weaken, decouple, and ultimately dissipate in 3 or 4 days. The GFS and ECMWF models suggest that dissipation could occur even sooner. The intensity models are in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is the same as the previous one. Center fixes from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Kirk is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. A continued west-northwest motion but at a slower pace is expected during the next few days as Kirk moves on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The latest models have not changed much, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast takes Kirk across the Lesser Antilles later today as a tropical storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 13.5N 58.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 14.2N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 14.9N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 15.6N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 16.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 16.3N 71.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-09-27 10:39:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 590 FONT12 KNHC 270839 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0900 UTC THU SEP 27 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUADELOUPE 34 3 15(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) AVES 34 X 13(13) 26(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) AVES 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 34 9 44(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) DOMINICA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 23 49(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) MARTINIQUE 50 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT LUCIA 34 11 33(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) SAINT VINCENT 34 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARBADOS 34 32 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-27 10:39:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK NEARING THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 27 the center of Kirk was located near 13.5, -58.3 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 14
2018-09-27 10:39:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 577 WTNT32 KNHC 270839 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 ...KIRK NEARING THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 58.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ENE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 58.3 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk will move across the Lesser Antilles within the tropical storm warning area by this evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days, but Kirk is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm. Another Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Kirk later this morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mostly north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by this afternoon. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Across eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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