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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 8
2020-09-19 17:03:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191502 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 8...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Corrected Storm Surge amounts ...BETA STARTING ITS WESTWARD TURN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 92.6W ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Port Aransas, Texas to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Texas coast later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected to begin later today, with a slow northwestward motion forecast to begin late Sunday or Sunday night and continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to be at or near hurricane strength Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft Cameron, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Borgne...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm Warning area by late Sunday or Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast Sunday night RAINFALL: Beta has the potential to produce a long-lived rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches beginning Saturday across southern Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Additional heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are possible through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near the Texas coast. SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico later today, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 29
2020-09-19 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 191450 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 The overall appearance of Teddy has degraded slightly since early this morning, with the eye no longer readily apparent in satellite imagery. However, microwave data a few hours ago showed that a well- defined outer eyewall exists with a decaying partial inner eyewall. This indicates that an eyewall replacement cycle is just about complete. The objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates generally agree on an intensity of 98-102 kt, but out of respect for the completing eyewall replacement cycle the initial intensity is set to a slightly more generous 105 kt. Teddy will be moving over slightly cooler waters caused by upwelling from Paulette over the next day or so and this should cause the hurricane to slowly weaken. However, in about 36 h the cyclone's wind field is forecast to begin expanding as it interacts with an approaching frontal system. Around 48-60 h, vertical wind shear is expected to dramatically increase as Teddy becomes embedded in the flow around a sharp mid-latitude upper-level trough. The interaction of the cyclone with both the front and trough should cause Teddy to begin an extratropical transition, with the post-tropical cyclone quickly weakening once the transition is complete. The SHIPS guidance and global model simulated satellite imagery tend to agree that the extratropical transition should be completed just after 72 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast was nudged downward slightly mainly due to the change in the initial intensity, and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. The hurricane continues its northwestward movement, now at 12 kt. The track forecast for Teddy remains essentially unchanged and is in the middle of tightly clustered guidance. Teddy is expected to turn northward to north-northeastward Sunday morning as it approaches a frontal system over the western Atlantic. This pattern should steer the hurricane east of Bermuda, though the hurricane's large wind field means that the island will still likely experience tropical storm conditions beginning by Sunday evening and continuing through much of Monday. A slight turn to the north then perhaps the north- northwest should occur Monday night into Tuesday as Teddy pivots around the upper trough. By Tuesday night, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward as the upper trough to its southwest begins to lift into the higher latitudes. Teddy is producing an extensive area of large waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic basin. See the Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday, tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning Sunday afternoon or evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 26.0N 59.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 28.8N 61.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 30.4N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 33.1N 61.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 37.1N 61.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 40.8N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 47.0N 59.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/1200Z 52.9N 51.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-19 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 191450 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Wilfred still consists of a very small low-level circulation embedded within an elongated area of low pressure. There has been a bit of an increase in deep convection near/over the estimated center during the past few hours, and the intensity remains 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS SATCON. Wilfred will be moving over SSTs of around 28C but will experience a gradual increase in westerly shear during the next 24 to 36 hours as an upper-level trough amplifies to the northwest, and this should result in little change in strength during that time. Beyond that time, the cyclone moves into a drier and more stable airmass, which should result in the system becoming a remnant low and dissipating in 60 to 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN consensus. The initial motion estimate based on the latest satellite fixes is 285/12. Wilfred should continue moving generally west- northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours and then turn more westward by 48 h as it becomes a shallower system. The new NHC track forecast is a bit faster than the previous one and has been adjusted farther south at 36 h and beyond, trending toward the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 13.4N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 14.2N 40.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 15.2N 43.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 15.9N 45.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 16.2N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 16.3N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 29
2020-09-19 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191450 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...HURRICANE TEDDY EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY EVENING... ...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 59.0W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 59.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north or north-northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a northward motion into early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday and the center will pass just east of the island late Sunday and early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds is forecast to begin early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The wind field of the hurricane is forecast to increase substantially starting on Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda beginning Sunday afternoon or evening and could linger through most of the day Monday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 29
2020-09-19 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 191450 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 59.0W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 300SE 390SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 59.0W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 58.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.8N 61.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.4N 62.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.1N 61.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 220SE 220SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.1N 61.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...320NE 280SE 220SW 320NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.8N 61.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...350NE 290SE 250SW 280NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 47.0N 59.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 52.9N 51.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 59.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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