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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 26
2020-09-13 10:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 130851 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...PAULETTE MOVING CLOSER TO BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 60.8W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda Sunday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 60.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength this afternoon or evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda today through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-09-13 10:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130851 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Over the past 6 hours, conventional and passive microwave satellite data indicate that very little change to Paulette's overall convective cloud pattern and inner-core structure has occurred. A recent GMI pass indciated that the inner-core convection remains somewhat disheveled due to a narrow but pronounced band of dry air having penetrated the mid-levels of the cyclone. However, the low-level eye feature remains intact with a diameter of at least 30 nmi. Given the little change in structure since the previous reconnaissance mission, the intensity is being maintained at 65 kt. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Paulette later this morning to provide a better estimate of the hurricane's intensity. The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. Overall, there is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The global and regional models are in excellent agreement on Paulette passing over or near Bermuda during the 24-36 hour period as the cyclone rounds a sharp east-to-west oriented subtropical ridge located near and due east of Bermuda. After passing Bermuda and moving north of the ridge in about 36 hours, Paulette is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough and associated surface cold front. There is one important feature to mention -- the official forecast track is west of the latest 0600 UTC interpolated models due to the interpolated model tracks taking the center of Paulette at least 30 nmi east of Bermuda. In contrast, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF are less than 6 nmi apart at 12-48 hours, and that consensus brings the hurricane across or just west of Bermuda in about 30 hours. Therefore, the new NHC official track forecast is essentially just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies just west of the tightly packed NHC guidance envelope. Environmental conditions appear favorable to Paulette to strengthen during the next 72 hours or so, with only occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air briefly interrupting the intensification process. The ragged inner core structure will likely delay intensification this morning, but by the this afternoon and continuing into Monday, the vertical shear is forecast by the global models to decrease to near zero, which should allow for significant strengthening to occur. In fact, it highly probable that Paulette will continue to intensify as the hurricane passes over Bermuda. By 48 hours when the hurricane is expected to be north of Bermuda, baroclinic interaction with the aforementioned deep-layer trough is forecast to aid in the intensification process with Paulette possibly becoming a major hurricane around 72 hours. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt should gradually weaken the cyclone. It is possible that by 96 hours or so, Paulette could merge with a frontal system and become a powerful extratropical low. For now, however, Paulette is forecast to remain just ahead of the front within the warm sector of a flat frontal wave. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is near the upper end of intensity guidance throughout the 120-h forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and will be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 29.4N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 30.2N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 34.0N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 35.9N 62.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 37.8N 57.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 39.3N 54.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 42.0N 46.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 43.8N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 26
2020-09-13 10:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 130850 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 60.8W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 90SE 180SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 60.8W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 60.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.2N 62.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.9N 62.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 45SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.8N 57.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 39.3N 54.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 190NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 42.0N 46.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 43.8N 40.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 60.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Paulette Graphics
2020-09-13 07:54:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 05:54:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 03:25:23 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-13 07:53:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE MOVING TOWARD BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY THIS EVENING... As of 2:00 AM AST Sun Sep 13 the center of Paulette was located near 29.3, -60.4 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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