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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-07 16:41:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2020 14:41:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2020 15:24:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-07 16:39:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 071439 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 Visible imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the circulation of Paulette is quite elongated from southwest to northeast. However, the ASCAT data indicated that winds up to tropical-storm-force were present, and this was corroborated by a 35 kt Dvorak-based intensity estimate from TAFB. Paulette is the 16th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the earliest 16th named storm of any Atlantic season by 10 days. The previous record was Philippe, which formed on September 17, 2005. Although it is elongated, the tropical storm's structure seems to have improved over the past few hours, with convection increasing in both coverage and organization. Although moderate southerly shear and some dry environmental air appear to be limiting factors, most of the intensity guidance suggests that modest strengthening is likely for the next couple of days. Near the end of the week, the models indicate that Paulette's winds will plateau or possibly decrease. This appears to be the result of increasing southwesterly shear associated with a upper-level trough that is forecast to deepen over the central Atlantic on Thursday and Friday. The official intensity forecast remains very near the multi-model consensus. Paulette has moved very little during the past few hours, but a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume shortly. Fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge over the western and central Atlantic will likely cause Paulette's exact speed and heading to fluctuate during the next several says, but the guidance agrees that it should generally head northwestward through the end of the week. It is likely that the stronger Paulette gets, the farther north it will move since the aforementioned upper-level trough will have a greater influence on its track. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the previous forecast and the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.2N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 17.9N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 18.7N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 19.6N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 20.3N 48.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 20.7N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 21.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 23.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-09-07 16:37:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 071437 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-07 16:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 7 the center of Paulette was located near 17.2, -42.2 with movement WNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-07 16:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 071437 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 42.2W ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1375 MI...2215 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 42.2 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A general weest-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly faster speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Modest additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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