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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-08 22:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2020 20:31:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2020 21:24:48 GMT
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paulette
Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-08 22:30:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 082030 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 Shear has started to take a toll on Paulette's structure. Convection is again primarily limited to the northeast quadrant with little signs of banding. It is certainly possible that convection will expand again tonight when Paulette is farther removed from the diurnal convective minimum, but for the moment it does not look like further intensification is imminent. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are still T-3.5/55 kt, and that is the basis for the intensity estimate. If convection does increase tonight, Paulette will have a brief window for further strengthening before an expected increase in southerly shear on Wednesday. At a minimum, Paulette's intensity should then level off, and it will probably begin to weaken. Later this week or over the weekend Paulette will have an opportunity to restrengthen, depending on its interaction with an upper-level low expected to be just west of the cyclone. The spread in the guidance at that point is very high ranging from near dissipation to a category 2 hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is mostly unchanged for now, but Paulette could certainly be much stronger or weaker over the weekend than currently forecast. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning, and therefore little change to the track forecast itself. Paulette should gradually turn westward by late Wednesday and then back toward the northwest later this week as a ridge to its north builds and weakens over the next several days. The model spread is high, since there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in exactly how far west Paulette will make it before it turns northwestward. Confidence in the forecast beyond 72 h remains low. The NHC forecast track is based heavily on the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 18.7N 44.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 19.2N 45.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 19.9N 47.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 20.7N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 23.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 26.5N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-08 22:30:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 8 the center of Paulette was located near 18.7, -44.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 8
2020-09-08 22:30:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 802 WTNT32 KNHC 082030 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 ...PAULETTE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 44.3W ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 44.3 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slightly faster motion toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday and should continue for a couple days thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-09-08 22:30:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 813 FONT12 KNHC 082030 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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