je.st
news
Tag: paulette
Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 12
2020-09-09 22:30:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 092030 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 ...PAULETTE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT COULD THEN RESTRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 47.4W ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 47.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected through Friday. A northwestward motion should begin Friday night and continue into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Paulette could restrengthen early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Bermuda into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-09-09 22:29:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 092029 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 47.4W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 34 KT.......210NE 90SE 60SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 47.4W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.9N 48.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 60SE 30SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.4N 50.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 40SE 0SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.6N 52.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 30SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.3N 54.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 30SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.3N 55.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 50SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 24.8N 56.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 28.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 30.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 47.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-09 17:03:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2020 15:03:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2020 15:03:20 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
paulette
Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-09-09 17:00:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 091459 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-09 16:59:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 091459 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Morning visible satellite images show that Paulette's center is located beneath a thin veil of cirrus and displaced to the south of the deep convection. Based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and a recent ASCAT pass which showed an area of 45-50 kt winds northwest of the center, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. A large upper-level trough is located to the northwest of Paulette, and this feature is producing 20-30 kt of south-southwesterly shear over the cyclone. The shear is forecast to increase well over 30 kt during the next day or two as Paulette gets closer to the upper-level disturbance, which should cause the cyclone's maximum winds to gradually decrease through day 3. The shear is forecast to abate somewhat and back around from the southeast by days 4 and 5, which could allow Paulette to restrengthen a little bit over the subtropical Atlantic at that time. The new NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous one and is generally close to the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA corrected consensus. Although Paulette has been hopscotching around a bit, likely being influenced by the sheared convection, the 12-hour motion is now toward the west-northwest (290/8 kt). Subtropical ridging to the north of Paulette is forecast to keep the cyclone on a westward or west-northwestward trajectory for the next 48 hours. After that time, the ridge is likely to weaken a bit, which should allow Paulette to move toward the northwest with some increase in forward speed on days 3 though 5. There is a typical amount of spread among the track models for this forecast, and while they all agree on the general future trajectory, there are some speed differences. In particular, the UKMET and HWRF start out much slower than the other models, and the ECWMF is much faster than the rest of the guidance by days 4 and 5. Relying on continuity and the model consensus aids, the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted very little from the previous prediction. The initial and forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii have been expanded based on the recent scatterometer data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 20.0N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 20.3N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 20.7N 49.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 20.9N 51.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 21.3N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 22.2N 54.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 23.5N 55.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 27.0N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] next »