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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-07 22:31:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 072031 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 Recent visible imagery shows that Paulette's circulation has become better defined since this morning. There has also been some evidence of increased banding, however the tropical storm remains sheared, with deep convection occuring primarily in its northeast quadrant. Recent satellite-based intensity estimates range from just below to just above the 35-kt intensity estimate. The NHC forecast still calls for modest strengthening over the next day or two, and this seems like a good bet given the recent observed improvement of Paulette's organization and structure. Moderate shear and some surrounding dry air appear to be inhibiting factors for substantial intensification, though the HWRF is a notable outlier that forecasts Paulette to become a hurricane in about 48 h. No major changes to the official intensity forecast were required at this time, and the NHC forecast is between the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Paulette appears to have moved slowly toward the northwest during the past several hours. The guidance spread has increased a little, though the models all have the same general idea. For the next 12 to 24 hours, Paulette will be embedded in an area of weak steering flow, though reformations of the center closer to the convection could result in a northwest to north-northwestward motion. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the western and central North Atlantic in a day or two and this should cause Paulette to turn back toward the west. The NHC forecast is slightly north of the previous one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 17.5N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 17.9N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 18.8N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 19.6N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 20.8N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 21.1N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 21.8N 53.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 24.0N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-09-07 22:30:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 362 FONT12 KNHC 072030 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-07 22:30:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 7 the center of Paulette was located near 17.5, -42.4 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-07 22:30:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 072030 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 ...PAULETTE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 42.4W ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 42.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected tonight. Paulette is then forecast to move a little faster and generally westward on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Modest strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-07 22:30:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 849 WTNT22 KNHC 072030 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.4W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.4W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 42.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.9N 42.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.8N 43.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.6N 45.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.8N 48.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.1N 50.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 21.8N 53.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 42.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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