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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics

2020-09-09 10:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2020 08:43:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2020 08:43:47 GMT

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-09-09 10:42:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090842 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 The 20-30 kt of southwesterly shear continues to have a significant impact on Paulette's inner core. A 0615 UTC Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager overpass showed a severely sheared tropical cyclone with the exposed surface circulation displaced to the south of the cloud canopy. Although the objective ADT and an earlier SATCON analysis yield 45 kt, The initial intensity is held at a generous 50 kt for this advisory in deference to last night's scatterometer pass showing a few 50 kt winds. In addition to the moderate, persistent shear, the RAMMB/CIRA Average Vertical Instability parameter time series analysis revealed a higher than normal (1995-2010) statically stable environment, another potential inhibiting factor. This was further supported by the statistical-dynamical intensity models showing a rather parched mid-troposphere (less than 58%). Therefore, slow weakening of Paulette is forecast during the next few days. Toward the end of the period, the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity models continue to indicate a more southerly, diffluent pattern which should aid in some restrengthening, and this is indicated in the NHC forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/7 kt. Paulette should turn west-northwestward later today and westward on Thursday around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast of the cyclone. A turn northwestward is predicted on Saturday as Paulette moves further into a growing weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic. The official forecast is an update of the previous one through 72 hrs, then is shifted to the left through day 5 to lies between the HCCA consensus and the the HFIP/NUOPC Project's 5EMN 133 member multi-model ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 19.2N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 19.7N 46.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.8N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 22.7N 54.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 25.9N 58.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 28.7N 61.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2020-09-09 10:41:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 090841 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-09-09 10:41:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090841 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.6W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 60SE 30SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 75SE 105SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.6W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 45.2W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.7N 46.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.8N 52.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.7N 54.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.9N 58.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 28.7N 61.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 45.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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