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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-09 04:51:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090251 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 Microwave and satellite data suggest that vertical shear is weakening Paulette. The center is near the southern side of a large thunderstorm cluster, with the bulk of deep convection in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. A recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt, a little lower than the other satellite estimates, and 50 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed. With Paulette already on a weakening trend, it seems that the window for significant strengthening has closed. More likely, a gradual decay of the storm is anticipated due to moderate or strong shear during the next few days. This shear could abate by the end of the forecast period due to Paulette moving around the northeastern side of a large mid-to-upper level low, which is a common position for the re-intensification of a tropical cyclone after encountering the mid-oceanic trough. The new forecast is lowered from the previous one for the first few days and then raised slightly at the longer ranges. This is consistent with a blend of the intensity model consensus, leaning toward the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance at the end. The storm is moving northwestward at about 8 kt. There has been some convergence of the model guidance during the next few days as Paulette should move west-northwestward tomorrow and westward on Thursday around a mid-level ridge. Thus, little change has been made from the previous forecast during the first 48-72h. Afterwards, the forecast is shifted to the north by 45-60 n mi under the assumption that Paulette stays coherent as a tropical cyclone and takes a turn to the northwest this weekend on the eastern flank of the aforementioned mid-to-upper level low. The new track forecast is northeast of the model consensus and places less emphasis on models, like the 12Z ECMWF, which show Paulette staying weaker and missing the full influence of the low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 19.2N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 19.8N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 20.2N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 20.6N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 20.8N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 21.1N 52.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 21.9N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 24.4N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 27.5N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-09 04:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE IS A LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 8 the center of Paulette was located near 19.2, -45.0 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-09 04:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090250 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 ...PAULETTE IS A LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 45.0W ABOUT 1400 MI...2250 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 45.0 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly faster motion toward the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday, a westward motion is forecast on Thursday, followed by a turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest by late Friday. Satellite-derived data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tomorrow, with slow weakening anticipated on Thursday and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-09-09 04:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 090250 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-09 04:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090250 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.0W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 60SE 30SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.0W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 44.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.8N 46.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.2N 48.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.6N 50.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.8N 51.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.1N 52.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.9N 53.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.4N 55.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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