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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 50

2018-10-08 22:46:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 082046 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PONTA DELGADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)

2018-10-08 22:46:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TENACIOUS LESLIE RESTRENGTHENING... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 8 the center of Leslie was located near 33.8, -45.8 with movement SE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 50

2018-10-08 22:46:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 082046 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018 ...TENACIOUS LESLIE RESTRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 45.8W ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 130 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 45.8 West. Leslie is moving toward the southeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower motion toward the southeast or east-southeast is anticipated over the next couple of days, with a turn toward the east-northeast forecast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane again on Wednesday, and further strengthening is possible through Thursday. Leslie is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 50

2018-10-08 22:45:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 082045 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 45.8W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 360SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 45.8W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 46.3W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.5N 44.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 130SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.6N 43.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.9N 42.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.2N 41.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 33.5N 26.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 37.0N 17.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 45.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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