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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-02 10:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 08:53:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 09:21:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 24
2018-10-02 10:52:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 326 WTNT43 KNHC 020852 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 Infrared and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that convection has increased and become better organized around the well-defined low-level circulation center. In fact, recent microwave images showed that Leslie has developed a closed, 20- to 25-nmi wide low-level eye. Based on the presence of the distinct low-level eye feature and a Dvorak intensity estimate of T3.5/55 kt from SAB, the cyclone's intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The initial motion is southwestward or 220 degrees at a faster forward speed of 6 kt. For the next 24 h or so, Leslie is forecast to move slowly southwestward to south-southwestward, trapped between a deep-layer ridge to the west and a mid- to upper-level low to the east. After possibly becoming stationary near the 36-h period, a ridge to the southeast and east of Leslie is forecast to become highly amplified, forcing the cyclone northward into the higher latitudes through 72 h. On days 4 and 5, an approaching mid-latitude shortwave trough well to the north of Leslie is forecast to nudge the cyclone eastward, but only slowly at forward speeds of less than 10 kt. The new NHC forecast track has again been adjusted to the left of the previous advisory track in the 36- to 72-h period, and is similar to but slightly east of the various consensus models. Leslie's outflow pattern has become a little more symmetrical during the past 6 h, and further improvement is expected through 72 hours. In addition, lightning data and satellite imagery during the past few hours indicate that convection has been developing in the dry slot to the north and east of the main convective band, suggesting the mid-level environment is finally beginning to moisten. This dry intrusion has been hindering the development of deep eyewall convection and, thus, the lack of intensification of the cyclone. However, given the strong instability that is forecast to develop in the inner-core region region due to very cold air aloft moving over relatively warm waters of near 26C beneath the cyclone, along with increasing outflow and mid-level moisture, slow but steady strengthening seems reasonable for the next 48 hours or so. By 72 h and beyond, gradual weakening is expected as Leslie moves back over cooler oceanic temperatures and dry mid-level air from the mid-latitudes associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough once again gets entrained into the cyclone's circulation. The official intensity forecast is just an update of the previous advisory, and is similar to the weaker IVCN consensus model. Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the Bahamas. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Although the swells are forecast to abate temporarily in the Bahamas later today, they are expected to increase again on Wednesday and Thursday, and propagate farther southward into the Greater and Lesser Antilles. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 31.6N 55.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 30.6N 56.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 29.9N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 30.2N 56.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 31.3N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 35.0N 56.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 37.1N 54.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 37.1N 51.9W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2018-10-02 10:51:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 285 FONT13 KNHC 020851 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-02 10:51:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 2 the center of Leslie was located near 31.6, -55.6 with movement SW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 24
2018-10-02 10:51:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 191 WTNT33 KNHC 020851 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 ...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 55.6W ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 55.6 West. Leslie is moving toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow southwestward or south-southwestward motion is expected through Wednesday morning. A turn to the north is forecast to occur late Wednesday into Thursday, followed by a motion toward the north-northeast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the Bahamas. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Although the swells are forecast to abate temporarily in the Bahamas later today, they are expected to increase again on Wednesday and Thursday and propagate farther southward into the Greater and Lesser Antilles. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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