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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 25
2018-10-02 16:33:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 104 WTNT43 KNHC 021433 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 Leslie has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm continues to have a ragged banded eye feature with multiple mesovortices within it. Deep convection is most organized in a curved band that currently wraps from the northeast to southwest quadrant of the storm. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt, which is near the high end of the satellite estimates. Although the storm has not strengthened much during the past day or so, it still has an opportunity to intensify while it moves over slightly higher SSTs and remains in favorable atmospheric conditions during the next day or two. Beyond a couple of days, slow weakening seems likely as Leslie heads over SSTs cooler than 26 deg C and into a slightly drier environment. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and it is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. This intensity forecast lies between the aggressive statistical-dynamical models and the lower HMON and COAMPS-TC models that keep Leslie below hurricane strength. The tropical storm continues to lose latitude, with the latest initial motion estimate being 215/7. A continued slow south to south-southwest motion is forecast during the next 24 hours as the system moves in the flow on the east side of a mid-level high. After that time, the combination of a shortwave trough to the west and an amplifying mid-level ridge to the southeast should cause Leslie to move northward to north-northeastward late this week. By the weekend, the models suggest that Leslie should turn eastward when it moves in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the west to come into better agreement with the latest models. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow and Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 30.9N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 30.1N 56.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 29.8N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 30.5N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 31.9N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 35.9N 56.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 37.6N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 37.3N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-02 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 2 the center of Leslie was located near 30.9, -56.1 with movement SW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 25
2018-10-02 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 547 WTNT33 KNHC 021433 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 ...LESLIE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 56.1W ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 56.1 West. Leslie is moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow south-southwestward or southward motion is expected through Wednesday. A turn to the north is forecast to occur late Wednesday into Thursday, followed by a motion toward the north-northeast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2018-10-02 16:33:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 513 FONT13 KNHC 021433 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 25
2018-10-02 16:32:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 186 WTNT23 KNHC 021432 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 56.1W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 420SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 56.1W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 55.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.1N 56.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.8N 56.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.5N 56.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 31.9N 56.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 35.9N 56.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 37.6N 54.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 37.3N 50.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 56.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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