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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 24
2018-10-02 10:51:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 193 WTNT23 KNHC 020851 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 55.6W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 450SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 55.6W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 55.4W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.6N 56.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.9N 56.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.2N 56.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 31.3N 56.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 35.0N 56.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 37.1N 54.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 37.1N 51.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 55.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-02 04:43:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 02:43:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 02:43:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 23
2018-10-02 04:42:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 075 WTNT43 KNHC 020242 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 Satellite imagery shows that the convective organization of Leslie has changed little during the past several hours. The eye-like feature, however, has become a little more distinct and symmetric. The subjective and objective intensity estimates haven't changed though, and the initial intensity remains at 50 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be a southwestward drift, or 220/4 kt. Leslie is forecast to continue drifting generally southwestward through the 36-hour period in relatively weak mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a ridge extending eastward from the southeast United States to near Bermuda. Afterwards, an amplifying mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching the cyclone from the Canadian Maritimes should induce a north-northeastward to northeastward motion at an increasing forward speed. The NHC forecast is adjusted just to the left of the previous forecast track beyond 36 hours to align more with the TVCN consensus guidance. The intensity forecast philosophy remains basically the same, this evening. Strengthening is still expected during the next 36 hours and Leslie is likely to become a hurricane Tuesday tonight, as indicated by the statistical and multi-model intensity guidance. Near the 72-hour period, Leslie should begin a gradual weakening trend as the cyclone moves back over cooler oceanic temperatures and some invading drier mid-level air, associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough which stabilizes the surrounding environment. The official intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and is close to the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA consensus aids. The forecast wind radii have been adjusted based on the RVCN (GFS/ECMWF/HWRF) multi-model consensus. Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the Bahamas. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Although the swells are forecast to abate temporarily in the Bahamas Tuesday, they are expected to increase again Wednesday and Thursday and propagate farther southward into the Greater and Lesser Antilles. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 32.4N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 31.3N 55.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 30.2N 56.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 29.9N 56.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 30.6N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 34.4N 55.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 37.0N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 37.3N 52.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-02 04:41:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 1 the center of Leslie was located near 32.4, -55.0 with movement SW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 23
2018-10-02 04:41:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 977 WTNT33 KNHC 020241 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 ...LESLIE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 55.0W ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 55.0 West. Leslie is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow southwestward or south-southwestward motion is expected through Wednesday. A turn to the north-northeast is forecast to occur by Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Leslie is likely to become a hurricane Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the Bahamas. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Although the swells are forecast to abate temporarily in the Bahamas Tuesday, they are expected to increase again Wednesday and Thursday and propagate farther southward into the Greater and Lesser Antilles. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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