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Tropical Storm Delta Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-10-05 16:53:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 051453 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 The convective structure of Delta has continued to improve this morning. Earlier microwave data and early-light visible satellite imagery showed that the center of the tropical cyclone re-formed farther south within the area of deep convection. Since that time, banding has continued to increase around the southern and eastern portion of the circulation, and a small CDO-like feature has formed. The intensity has been set at 40 kt, which is a blend of the subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective satellite intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the tropical storm this afternoon, which should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity, structure, and wind field. With the earlier center re-formation, the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 280/6 kt. Delta is expected to resume a west-northwestward motion later today. A northwestward heading around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge should begin tonight or Tuesday, and that general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to continue through 60-72 hours. After that time, a broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the south-central United States, which should weaken the western portion of the ridge and cause Delta to turn northward toward the northern Gulf Coast. After day 4, Delta should begin to accelerate north-northeastward or northeastward ahead of the aforementioned trough. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south and west of the previous advisory during the first couple of days, primarily due to the recent center re-formation and more southward initial position. After that time, the NHC track is not much different than the previous forecast and lies near the center of the tightly clustered dynamical model envelope. Delta is forecast to traverse very warm waters over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and be in a very low vertical wind shear environment during the next couple of days. These conditions should allow for significant strengthening during that time, and the NHC intensity forecast is at or above the various intensity aids. It is somewhat surprising that the intensity aids were generally a little lower this cycle, but the expected low shear and SHIPS rapid intensification index support the higher than climatological rate of intensification. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are likely to induce some weakening later in the period. The updated NHC intensity forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over the next 48-60 hours, but is similar to the previous advisory thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today or tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected in portions of western Cuba by Tuesday afternoon, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. 4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Delta and check for updates to the forecast during the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 16.4N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 17.1N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 18.7N 81.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 20.8N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 22.8N 86.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 24.6N 89.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 26.0N 90.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 28.8N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 33.1N 88.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Delta (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-05 16:52:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DELTA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 the center of Delta was located near 16.4, -78.6 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-10-05 16:52:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 051452 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 10(16) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 11(20) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 18(25) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 21(29) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 21(31) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 11(25) 10(35) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 23(39) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 24(46) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 23(50) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 24(34) 20(54) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 13(26) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 14(57) 7(64) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 6(24) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 22(33) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) 23(56) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 27(74) 7(81) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 22(40) 8(48) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 4(26) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 20(52) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 30(40) 16(56) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 12(27) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 12(31) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 16(48) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) 16(51) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 32(60) 4(64) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 4(33) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 2(19) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 9(27) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 9(34) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 27(39) 7(46) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 7(22) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 7(27) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 3(28) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 3(29) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 5(24) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 19(32) 4(36) X(36) X(36) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 57(59) 30(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 23(23) 42(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) HAVANA 34 X 3( 3) 28(31) 5(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 10(10) 53(63) 3(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 4 76(80) 8(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 29(29) 13(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 17 6(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) KINGSTON 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 19(37) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 21(31) 20(51) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Delta Public Advisory Number 4
2020-10-05 16:52:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051452 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Delta Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...DELTA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 78.6W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Warning was also been issued for the Isle of Youth. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.6 West. Delta is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to move away from Jamaica later today, move near or over the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Delta is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday before it nears western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today or tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth beginning Tuesday afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2020-10-05 16:52:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 14:52:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 14:52:16 GMT
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