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Tropical Storm Delta Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-10-05 16:51:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 051451 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.6W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.6W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.1N 79.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.7N 81.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.8N 84.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.8N 86.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.6N 89.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.0N 90.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 28.8N 91.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 33.1N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 78.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-10-05 16:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 051451 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 87.6W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 205 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 210SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 87.6W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.1N 88.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 89.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.9N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.2N 90.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.3N 89.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.0N 89.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 87.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-10-05 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 051450 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 500 AM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 The remains of the deep convection associated with Marie continues to get further displaced from the exposed low-level center due strong upper-level westerly winds, with the gap now over 100 n mi between those two features. The various satellite intensity estimates suggest that the current intensity may only be 45 kt. However, due to fair number of 55-kt wind vectors on the ASCAT overpass early this morning, the intensity is conservatively being lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. Marie is expected to weaken over the next few days in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind shear, over SSTs cooler that 25 degrees C, surrounded by a dry and stable airmass. With the convection now displaced so far from the center, and no regeneration of convection near the center anticipated, Marie is now forecast to become a remnant low by Tuesday night. This could happen even sooner if the current trend continues. Marie continues to move west-northwestward at about 8 kt around a mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west is expected in a couple of days as the cyclone becomes a more shallow system. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various track consensus forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 21.1N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 21.5N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.1N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 22.7N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 23.1N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0000Z 23.3N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z 23.3N 138.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z 22.9N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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marie
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2020-10-05 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 051450 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-05 16:50:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Oct 5 the center of Marie was located near 21.1, -131.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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