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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2020-10-06 04:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 759 FOPZ13 KNHC 060233 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-06 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... As of 5:00 PM HST Mon Oct 5 the center of Marie was located near 21.4, -133.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 28
2020-10-06 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 060232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 ...MARIE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 133.5W ABOUT 1510 MI...2430 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 133.5 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the west late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual weakening is anticipated. Marie is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 28
2020-10-06 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 060232 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 133.5W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 133.5W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 133.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.9N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.1N 138.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.9N 140.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 133.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Delta Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-10-05 22:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 052055 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Visible satellite imagery shows that the convective banding of Delta has continued to quickly improve since this morning. The primary convective band now wraps entirely around the center, with what appears to be a banding-type eye feature occasionally noted. There are some dry slots between the convective bands but those appear to be gradually filling in. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently collecting data in the storm environment found peak SFMR winds of 55 kt during its first pass through the center from northwest to southeast. The plane also reported a minimum pressure of 983 mb, much lower than previously estimated. The aircraft also observed an 18 nmi-wide-eye that was open to the west-northwest. Assuming that there are stronger winds yet to be sampled in the northeastern quadrant, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt. Delta is situated within a very conducive environment for strengthening. The storm will be moving over SSTs of 29-30 degrees Celsius and the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain 5 kt or less while Delta traverses the northwestern Caribbean. These conditions are expected to allow for rapid strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index gives a better than 50 percent chance of a 35-40 kt increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follow suit by calling for rapid intensification over the next day or so, and Delta is forecast to be a major hurricane when is passes near or over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula. Once the storm reaches the central Gulf of Mexico in 60-72 hours, increasing southwestern vertical wind shear and cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are likely to result in some reduction in wind speed as the system nears the northern Gulf coast. Although there is still significant uncertainty regarding Delta's intensity when it nears the northern Gulf coast, it is becoming increasing likely that the system will pose a significant wind and storm surge threat to a portion of that area. The center has jogged southward again this afternoon, which appears to be primarily due to the system organizing rather than a true storm motion. The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain 275/7 kt. Delta should begin moving west-northwestward this evening, and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge to its northeast is expected over the next couple of days. The more southward initial position and more ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico has resulted in a significant westward shift in the track envelope through the first 60-72 hours. The NHC has been adjusted in that direction, and this has required the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. After 72 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop over Texas which should cause Delta to turn northward and then north-northeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast. Although the track forecast has not changed much during the latter portion of the period, there is more cross-track spread in the model guidance than before, which has increased the uncertainty regarding potential landfall and the timing of Delta's approach to the northern Gulf Coast. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and are possible in extreme western Cuba beginning Tuesday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands beginning tonight or early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.1N 80.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 19.0N 83.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 21.0N 86.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 22.6N 88.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 23.7N 90.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 91.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 28.5N 91.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 33.0N 89.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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