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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 29
2020-10-06 10:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 060851 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 134.3W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 134.3W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 133.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 135.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.7N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.0N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N 140.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 134.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2020-10-06 10:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 060851 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 135W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-10-06 10:50:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 060850 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 106.2W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 106.2W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 106.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.1N 106.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.3N 106.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.9N 107.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 106.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/STEWART
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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2020-10-06 04:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 02:34:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 02:34:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 28
2020-10-06 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 Marie is making one last grasp at holding on to tropical cyclone status. Convection has both deepened and moved closer to the center of the cyclone since the last advisory. Although this convection is still displaced well to the north of Marie's center, it appears to be sufficient to maintain advisories for the moment. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on earlier ASCAT data, assuming gradual weakening since then. This assessment may be generous, but we will likely get more scatterometer data before the next advisory. Despite its recent marginal convective resurgence, Marie is still moving over cold SSTs and through a hostile environment. It is therefore forecast to become a remnant low within 12 h. The aforementioned ASCAT data showed Marie was still producing a wide area of 35 kt or greater winds, and it will take a little while for the large circulation to spin down. Most of the models indicate that Marie will degenerate into a trough of low pressure in about 4 days, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 21.4N 133.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 21.9N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 23.1N 138.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z 23.0N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z 22.9N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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