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Tropical Storm Delta Graphics
2020-10-05 22:55:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 20:55:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 20:55:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-10-05 22:53:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 052053 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 12(28) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 24(37) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 25(43) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 26(47) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 22(50) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 23(41) 10(51) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 24(34) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 25(52) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 37(64) 11(75) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 9(40) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 25(50) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 23(55) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 16(32) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 20(47) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 20(49) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 34(57) 7(64) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 7(35) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 13(28) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 13(35) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 10(43) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 9(27) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 4(26) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) 4(32) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 7(23) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 1(19) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 1(17) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 9(27) 2(29) X(29) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COZUMEL MX 34 X 3( 3) 65(68) 11(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 37(37) 14(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 17(17) 11(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 5( 5) 70(75) 4(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 31(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HAVANA 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 10(11) 16(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLE OF PINES 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 4 61(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) GRAND CAYMAN 50 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MONTEGO BAY 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 22(47) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Delta (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-05 22:53:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DELTA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 the center of Delta was located near 16.2, -79.4 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Delta Public Advisory Number 5
2020-10-05 22:53:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 052053 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Delta Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DELTA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 79.4W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Tulum northward and westward to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 79.4 West. Delta is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest should occur this evening. A faster northwestward motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within a portion of the the Hurricane Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions expected beginning late Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth beginning Tuesday afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and mudslides. Later this week into the weekend, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southeastern United States. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Delta Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-10-05 22:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 052052 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO RIO LAGARTOS...INCLUDING COZUMEL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.4W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.4W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N 80.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.0N 86.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.6N 88.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.7N 90.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.8N 91.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 28.5N 91.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 33.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 79.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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