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Subtropical Depression Leslie Public Advisory Number 7
2018-09-25 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 403 WTNT33 KNHC 250232 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Leslie Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 ...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINNING TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 47.1W ABOUT 1175 MI...1895 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Leslie was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 47.1 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster eastward motion is expected to begin on Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the north on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie is forecast to become post-tropical on Tuesday. Strengthening is likely after that time, and Leslie is expected to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone by Wednesday with winds approaching hurricane force. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Subtropical Depression Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-09-25 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 401 FONT13 KNHC 250232 PWSAT3 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Subtropical Depression Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-09-25 04:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 275 WTNT23 KNHC 250232 TCMAT3 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 47.1W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 240SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 47.1W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 47.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.9N 45.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 34.5N 41.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 100SE 250SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 36.2N 40.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 250NW. 34 KT...350NE 150SE 250SW 350NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.9N 43.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 250NW. 34 KT...350NE 150SE 250SW 350NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 36.5N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 36.5N 49.0W...SUBTROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 47.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-09-24 22:39:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 20:39:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 21:21:59 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-09-24 22:37:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 110 WTNT43 KNHC 242037 TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 Leslie's cloud pattern has become rather ragged and less organized this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery indicates that the surface circulation has become elongated, from north to south, with multiple cloud swirls rotating within the larger gyre. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory and could be generous, based on the earlier partial ASCAT-A wind retrievals. The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same. Leslie is expected to interact with the incoming baroclinic zone approaching from the northwest and begin intensifying as it completes a post-tropical/extratropical transition by mid period. The official forecast is based on the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus through 36 hours, and a blend of the global models after Leslie becomes an extratropical low. Based on a centroid position of the aforementioned multiple surface swirls, Leslie continues to move in an eastward fashion, or 090/6 kt. Leslie should turn toward the east-northeast in 36 hours in response to an approaching mid-latitude trough and associated cold front from the northwest over the central Atlantic. The large-scale models are in good agreement with Leslie completing an extratropical transition at that time. Afterward, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to become cut off from the mid- to upper-tropospheric westerly steering flow and move cyclonically toward the end of the week between the building Bermuda high to the west and mid-level ridging over the east Atlantic. The NHC forecast now shows Leslie as a strengthening extratropical low through day 5, in agreement with GFS, Canadian, and European models. Subsequently, the wind radii forecast has also been adjusted based on a compromise of the aforementioned large-scale models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 33.0N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 32.9N 46.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 32.6N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 33.4N 41.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/1800Z 35.4N 39.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/1800Z 36.9N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/1800Z 36.7N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 29/1800Z 36.2N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
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