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Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)

2018-09-24 22:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LESLIE A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 24 the center of Leslie was located near 33.0, -47.2 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 6

2018-09-24 22:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 942 WTNT33 KNHC 242037 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 ...LESLIE A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 47.2W ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 47.2 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night. A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday followed by a north-northeastward turn by Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Tuesday morning. Leslie is forecast to strengthen by mid-week while transitioning into an extratropical cyclone. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2018-09-24 22:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 968 FONT13 KNHC 242037 PWSAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 6

2018-09-24 22:36:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 878 WTNT23 KNHC 242036 TCMAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 47.2W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 47.2W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 47.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.9N 46.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.6N 44.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.4N 41.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 100SW 280NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 35.4N 39.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 120SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 36.9N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 120SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 36.7N 46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 36.2N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 47.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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