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Subtropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-09-24 10:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 08:33:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 09:28:09 GMT
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leslie
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-09-24 10:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 385 WTNT43 KNHC 240832 TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 Leslie has changed little overnight. The large subtropical cyclone continues to produce patches of deep convection, mostly to the south and east of the center. The initial intensity is again held at 35 kt, which is near the upper end of the satellite intensity estimates. The subtropical storm is moving southward at 5 kt. The steering currents around Leslie are expected to collapse later today and little overall motion is forecast during the next 12-18 hours. After that time, a cold front is expected to approach the system, and that should cause Leslie to move eastward tonight and Tuesday. The front is expected to merge with Leslie by Tuesday night, causing it to become extratropical. While little change in intensity is expected during the next day or so, due to dry air and moderate shear, some strengthening as an extratropical low is likely due to baroclinic forcing. In fact, after becoming extratropical, the models show Leslie merging with another frontal low to its north, leading to the formation of a powerful slow-moving non-tropical low with gale- or storm-force winds over the central Atlantic later this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 32.6N 48.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 32.6N 48.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 32.6N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 32.5N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 32.7N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-24 10:31:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 24 the center of Leslie was located near 32.6, -48.6 with movement S at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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leslie
subtropical
Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 4
2018-09-24 10:31:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 105 WTNT33 KNHC 240831 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 ...LESLIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 48.6W ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 48.6 West. The storm is moving toward the south near 6 mph (9 km/h), and little motion is expected today. An eastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast tonight and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Leslie is forecast to strengthen when it merges with a frontal system in two to three days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-09-24 10:31:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 104 WTNT23 KNHC 240831 TCMAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 48.6W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 48.6W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 48.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 32.6N 48.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.6N 46.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.5N 44.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.7N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 48.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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