je.st

Home › matthew

Tag: matthew

Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34

2016-10-06 16:55:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 061455 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) X(14) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16) X(16) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 5(28) X(28) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 14(26) 3(29) X(29) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 23(32) 5(37) X(37) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 25(34) 6(40) X(40) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 25(35) 6(41) X(41) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 26(41) 5(46) X(46) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 25(44) 4(48) X(48) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) X(16) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 27(54) 4(58) X(58) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 2(24) X(24) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 14(39) 2(41) X(41) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 9(30) 2(32) X(32) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 23(53) 4(57) X(57) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 2(22) X(22) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 25(35) 22(57) 3(60) X(60) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 2(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 28(43) 19(62) 3(65) X(65) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 13(28) 1(29) X(29) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 30(55) 14(69) 1(70) X(70) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 10(33) 1(34) X(34) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 4( 4) 32(36) 26(62) 9(71) X(71) X(71) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) 6(33) X(33) X(33) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) 6(28) 1(29) X(29) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 5( 5) 38(43) 23(66) 5(71) 1(72) X(72) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 12(12) 18(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 20(21) 51(72) 11(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 1( 1) 35(36) 12(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 19(19) 8(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 7( 7) 40(47) 13(60) 4(64) X(64) X(64) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 10(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 31(32) 48(80) 6(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 3( 3) 41(44) 12(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 26(26) 8(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 26(27) 51(78) 7(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 3( 3) 36(39) 10(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) 18(18) 6(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) GAINESVILLE FL 34 2 31(33) 39(72) 5(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 3( 3) 15(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 80(82) 13(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 37(37) 38(75) 2(77) X(77) 1(78) X(78) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X 15(15) 38(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) THE VILLAGES 34 2 60(62) 22(84) 3(87) X(87) 1(88) X(88) THE VILLAGES 50 X 11(11) 19(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) THE VILLAGES 64 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 4 86(90) 4(94) 1(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) ORLANDO FL 50 X 51(51) 18(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ORLANDO FL 64 X 23(23) 17(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) COCOA BEACH FL 34 15 82(97) 1(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 1 79(80) 6(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 59(59) 11(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) PATRICK AFB 34 14 83(97) 1(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 50 1 79(80) 6(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) PATRICK AFB 64 X 58(58) 11(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) FT PIERCE FL 34 60 39(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 50 5 82(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) FT PIERCE FL 64 1 68(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) W PALM BEACH 34 89 8(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) W PALM BEACH 50 25 48(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) W PALM BEACH 64 7 40(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) FT LAUDERDALE 34 81 6(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 1(89) FT LAUDERDALE 50 19 16(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) FT LAUDERDALE 64 5 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MIAMI FL 34 58 9(67) 1(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) 1(70) MIAMI FL 50 7 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MIAMI FL 64 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 3 10(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) 1(18) 1(19) NAPLES FL 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 3 18(21) 3(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) 1(27) FT MYERS FL 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 2 13(15) 4(19) 2(21) X(21) 1(22) X(22) VENICE FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 2 31(33) 10(43) 4(47) X(47) 1(48) X(48) TAMPA FL 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 14(16) 23(39) 3(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) ST MARKS FL 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) APALACHICOLA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 94 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GRAND BAHAMA 64 75 9(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANDROS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANDROS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number speed wind matthew

Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)

2016-10-06 16:54:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR FLORIDA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 the center of MATTHEW was located near 25.1, -77.8 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Tags: summary matthew hurricane at4al142016

Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 34

2016-10-06 16:54:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 061454 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 77.8W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF NASSAU ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Anclote River to Suwannee River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * North of Golden Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina * Lake Okeechobee A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Golden Beach * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward * Florida Bay * Anclote River to Suwannee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Chokoloskee to Anclote River Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 77.8 West. The eye is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) between Andros Island and Nassau in the Bahamas. This general motion is expected to continue today with a turn toward the north-northwest tonight or early Friday. On the forecast track, Matthew should cross the northwestern Bahamas later today and move close to or over the east coast of the Florida peninsula through Friday night. Reports form an Air Force plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible, and Matthew should remain a Category 4 hurricane while it approaches the Florida coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The minimum central pressure estimated by an Air Force plane was 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are still affecting the central Bahamas and these condition will spread into the northwestern Bahamas during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first expected in Florida within the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in northeast Georgia and South Carolina by early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Friday night. Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Central and Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft Edisto Beach to South Santee River...3 to 5 ft Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life- threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from Deerfield Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated totals of 15 inches Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina....4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches The Florida Keys...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Eastern Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals of 20 inches Central Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals of 8 inches Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central and eastern Cuba. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days, and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number public advisory matthew

Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 34

2016-10-06 16:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 061453 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO EDISTO BEACH...SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ANCLOTE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...EXUMA...RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR...AND CAT ISLAND * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHOKOLOSKEE TO GOLDEN BEACH * FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD * FLORIDA BAY * ANCLOTE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND IN THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 77.8W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 77.8W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 77.4W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.4N 79.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.3N 80.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 30.2N 81.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.7N 80.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 32.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 30.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 28.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 77.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number advisory matthew forecast