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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 33
2016-10-06 11:01:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060901 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016 The satellite presentation of Matthew has improved markedly overnight with eye reappearing and warming within the past couple of hours. The eye is also embedded within a very symmetric central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -70C. An Air Force Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunter that just flew through the center reported peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 132 kt, SFMR winds around 103 kt, and a pressure of 944 mb, which is down about 18 mb from last evening. Using a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds, the initial intensity is set at 110 kt. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening today and Matthew is expected to become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane while it moves over the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the east coast of Florida. After 24 hours, land interaction is likely to cause some weakening, and later in the period increasing shear should cause a more rapid decrease in winds. The NHC forecast is above the most of guidance during the first 24 hours due to the recent increase in organization, but is close to the consensus thereafter. Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Matthew is moving northwestward or 320/10 kt. Matthew is expected to move around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge that is forecast to gradually retreat eastward during the next day or two. This pattern should steer Matthew northwestward over the northwestern Bahamas today, then north-northwestward very near the east coast of Florida late today through Friday night. The models are tightly clustered through 48 hours, and the NHC track is near the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models through that time. After 48 hours, the hurricane should turn northeastward as a broad trough approaches the Great Lakes region. The trough is expected to pass north of Matthew in about 72 hours, which is expected to cause the cyclone to turn eastward, then southeastward late in the forecast period. There is still significant spread in the long-range guidance so there is lower than normal confidence in the days 4 and 5 track prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along portions of the east coast of Florida tonight. 2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and Georgia. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the hurricane watch area in northeast Georgia and South Carolina. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect eastern North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. 4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in Florida and Georgia. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 24.2N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 25.5N 78.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 27.2N 79.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 29.0N 80.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 30.7N 80.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 32.4N 77.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 31.0N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 29.5N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2016-10-06 10:58:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 060858 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0900 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 1(13) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) 2(25) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 4(25) X(25) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 7(32) 1(33) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 9(35) 1(36) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 8(35) 1(36) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) 7(40) 1(41) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 26(34) 8(42) X(42) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) 1(13) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 30(42) 8(50) X(50) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) X(19) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31) 3(34) 1(35) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 12(24) 2(26) X(26) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 28(42) 6(48) X(48) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) 1(18) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 27(44) 5(49) X(49) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) X(18) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 26(50) 4(54) 1(55) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 2(23) X(23) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 23(57) 3(60) X(60) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 2(26) X(26) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 27(39) 20(59) 2(61) X(61) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) 1(26) X(26) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 9(23) 2(25) X(25) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 27(43) 17(60) 2(62) X(62) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) 1(25) X(25) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 4( 4) 35(39) 25(64) 10(74) X(74) X(74) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 23(40) 9(49) 1(50) X(50) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 5( 5) 43(48) 21(69) 8(77) X(77) X(77) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 15(15) 22(37) 6(43) X(43) X(43) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 5( 5) 39(44) 21(65) 8(73) X(73) X(73) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 11(11) 18(29) 5(34) X(34) X(34) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 6( 6) 37(43) 15(58) 6(64) X(64) X(64) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 31(33) 50(83) 5(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 4( 4) 43(47) 11(58) 2(60) X(60) X(60) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 26(26) 8(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) THE VILLAGES 34 1 18(19) 49(68) 7(75) 3(78) 1(79) X(79) THE VILLAGES 50 X 2( 2) 15(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 2 52(54) 35(89) 3(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) ORLANDO FL 50 X 11(11) 45(56) 3(59) 1(60) 1(61) X(61) ORLANDO FL 64 X 3( 3) 19(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 79(81) 16(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 35(35) 42(77) 3(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 12(12) 42(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) PATRICK AFB 34 2 79(81) 16(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) PATRICK AFB 50 X 35(35) 42(77) 2(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) PATRICK AFB 64 X 12(12) 41(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) FT PIERCE FL 34 5 90(95) 3(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 50 1 69(70) 17(87) X(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 43(43) 23(66) X(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) W PALM BEACH 34 20 76(96) 1(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) W PALM BEACH 50 2 78(80) 4(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) W PALM BEACH 64 X 57(57) 5(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) FT LAUDERDALE 34 37 56(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) FT LAUDERDALE 50 3 58(61) 1(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X 31(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) MIAMI FL 34 27 52(79) 2(81) X(81) 1(82) X(82) 1(83) MIAMI FL 50 2 31(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) MIAMI FL 64 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MARATHON FL 34 2 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) KEY WEST FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NAPLES FL 34 2 22(24) 6(30) 2(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) NAPLES FL 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 2 30(32) 8(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) 1(44) FT MYERS FL 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT MYERS FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) VENICE FL 34 2 14(16) 10(26) 3(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) VENICE FL 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 1 15(16) 25(41) 3(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) TAMPA FL 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 6( 6) 18(24) 8(32) 4(36) X(36) 1(37) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) ST MARKS FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 91 8(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 28 63(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) GRAND BAHAMA 64 5 57(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) ANDROS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANDROS 50 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) ANDROS 64 51 X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HAVANA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-06 10:58:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS MATTHEW STRENGTHENING NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 the center of MATTHEW was located near 24.2, -77.1 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 944 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 33
2016-10-06 10:58:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060858 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS MATTHEW STRENGTHENING NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 77.1W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF NASSAU ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, and the Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to South Santee River, South Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * North of Golden Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia * Lake Okeechobee A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Golden Beach * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 77.1 West. Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight. On the forecast track, the eye of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and New Providence in the northwestern Bahamas early this morning, then pass near Grand Bahama Island late today, and move very close to the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Friday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as it approaches the east coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas and spread into the northwestern Bahamas today. Winds will gradually diminish over the southeastern Bahamas this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first expected in Florida by late this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in northeast Georgia and South Carolina by early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area on the Florida Gulf Coast beginning later today. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Central and Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River, including portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft Savannah River to South Santee River...3 to 5 ft Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life- threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast and Georgia coast from Deerfield Beach to Altamaha Sound. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated totals of 15 inches Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina....4 to 8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches The Florida Keys...1 to 3 inches, isolated totals of 5 inches Eastern Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals of 20 inches Central Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals of 8 inches Turks and Caicos Islands...less than one additional inch, isolated storm-totals of 8 inches Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central and eastern Cuba. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days, and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 33
2016-10-06 10:57:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 060857 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0900 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA... ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND RAGGED ISLAND * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...EXUMA...RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR...AND CAT ISLAND * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHOKOLOSKEE TO GOLDEN BEACH * FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD * FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO SUWANNEE RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND IN THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 77.1W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 77.1W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 76.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.5N 78.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.2N 79.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.0N 80.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.7N 80.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.4N 77.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 31.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 29.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 77.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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