je.st
news
Tag: matthew
Hurricane MATTHEW Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2016-10-05 23:58:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2016 21:58:52 GMT
Tags: map
potential
storm
matthew
Hurricane MATTHEW Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2016-10-05 23:39:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2016 21:39:45 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
matthew
hurricane
Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics
2016-10-05 23:09:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2016 20:39:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2016 21:05:39 GMT
Tags: graphics
matthew
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 31
2016-10-05 22:40:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 052040 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane a couple of hours ago indicated that the structure of Matthew had not changed very much, and the initial intensity remains at 105 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter plane will be in the eye soon. The environment continues to be favorable for Matthew to restrengthen while it approaches the the east coast of Florida during the next day or so. After that time, the shear is forecast to increase significantly, resulting in gradual weakening of the hurricane. Satellite images indicate that Matthew is moving toward the northwest or 325 degrees at about 10 kt. The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic is still strong, and the flow pattern around this ridge should continue to steer the hurricane toward the northwest during the next day or two with no significant change in forward speed. After that time, the ridge will shift eastward, allowing Matthew to move northward very near or over the north Florida east coast, and then near or to the east of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. By the end of the forecast period, models diverge considerably, with the GFS moving the cyclone southwestward toward land, and the ECMWF keeping Matthew over the Atlantic a good distance from the coast. The NHC forecast keeps Matthew over water in the middle of these two model solutions. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological service and other government officials in that country. 2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane- force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and Georgia. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several days. 4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in Florida and Georgia. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 22.5N 75.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 24.0N 76.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 25.6N 78.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 27.2N 79.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 29.0N 80.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 32.0N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 32.6N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 30.0N 74.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
matthew
forecast
Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2016-10-05 22:39:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 052039 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 2(17) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 2(18) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 5(31) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 11(28) 1(29) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 16(32) 5(37) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 18(34) 5(39) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 18(35) 5(40) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 16(41) 3(44) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 16(43) 4(47) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 1(17) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 17(49) 4(53) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) 2(24) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 10(38) 1(39) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 6(30) 1(31) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 16(50) 2(52) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 2(21) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 14(50) 2(52) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) 1(21) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 35(42) 13(55) 1(56) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 8(25) 1(26) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 37(48) 8(56) 2(58) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 7(27) X(27) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 34(50) 6(56) 1(57) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 4(26) X(26) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 5(28) X(28) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 31(51) 5(56) 1(57) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 2(24) X(24) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 33(41) 26(67) 3(70) X(70) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20(33) 2(35) X(35) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 1(18) X(18) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 23(47) 4(51) X(51) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 11(11) 38(49) 24(73) 1(74) X(74) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 22(40) 1(41) X(41) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) 1(23) X(23) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 10(10) 34(44) 25(69) 2(71) X(71) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 18(32) 2(34) X(34) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 33(45) 17(62) 2(64) X(64) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) 1(20) X(20) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) 39(77) 9(86) X(86) X(86) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 33(40) 13(53) 1(54) X(54) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 8(32) X(32) X(32) THE VILLAGES 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 38(63) 11(74) 1(75) X(75) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 8(29) X(29) X(29) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X 5( 5) 47(52) 31(83) 6(89) X(89) X(89) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 16(16) 30(46) 6(52) 1(53) X(53) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 9( 9) 62(71) 20(91) 3(94) X(94) X(94) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 1( 1) 33(34) 29(63) 5(68) 1(69) X(69) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) 15(15) 25(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) PATRICK AFB 34 X 9( 9) 62(71) 20(91) 3(94) X(94) X(94) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 34(34) 29(63) 5(68) 1(69) X(69) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) 15(15) 25(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 24(25) 62(87) 8(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) FT PIERCE FL 50 X 3( 3) 55(58) 16(74) 3(77) X(77) X(77) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 1( 1) 36(37) 16(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) W PALM BEACH 34 2 47(49) 43(92) 3(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) W PALM BEACH 50 X 13(13) 55(68) 7(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) W PALM BEACH 64 X 5( 5) 43(48) 7(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 56(58) 28(86) 3(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X 19(19) 41(60) 3(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X 7( 7) 29(36) 3(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) MIAMI FL 34 2 49(51) 26(77) 2(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) MIAMI FL 50 X 14(14) 27(41) 2(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) MIAMI FL 64 X 5( 5) 17(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MARATHON FL 34 2 10(12) 10(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) 1(27) MARATHON FL 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) NAPLES FL 34 1 7( 8) 25(33) 7(40) 3(43) 1(44) X(44) NAPLES FL 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X 7( 7) 29(36) 10(46) 5(51) X(51) 1(52) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 12(33) 7(40) X(40) X(40) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 22(44) 8(52) 1(53) X(53) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) 11(42) 2(44) X(44) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) 2(20) X(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 2(21) X(21) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 84(87) 10(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 50(50) 33(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X 21(21) 36(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 82 18(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 20 74(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 6 69(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ANDROS 34 94 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ANDROS 50 61 24(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) ANDROS 64 34 33(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 64 76 X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) SAN SALVADOR 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 1(95) MAYAGUANA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) HAVANA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
speed
wind
matthew
Sites : [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] next »