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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 32
2016-10-06 04:54:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060254 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed lower winds in Matthew than seen during the previous mission, with peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 103 kt and estimates near 95 kt from the SFMR instrument. Based on these, the initial intensity is reduced to 100 kt. However, satellite imagery indicates that the hurricane is becoming better organized, with the eye trying to re-appear and cooling cloud tops near the center. In addition, the eye has contracted to 15 n mi wide and the central pressure has fallen to 961 mb. This suggests that the winds are about to increase. The initial motion is 320/9. There is little change to the synoptic reasoning or the forecast track through 48 hours. Matthew is expected to move around the western side of the subtropical ridge, which should move slowly eastward during the next couple of days. This evolution should steer Matthew generally northwestward for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest. This forecast track takes the center near Andros Island and New Providence in about 12 hours, and then very near the eastern coast of the the Florida peninsula. This part of the forecast track is west of the various consensus models, but it lies near the GFS, ECMWF, and ECMWF ensemble mean. From 48-72 hours, the cyclone is expected to recurve northeastward along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. After 72 hours, the track guidance become very divergent, with solutions ranging from a continued eastward motion out to sea to a turn back to the southwest. The new forecast track shows a slow southeastward motion during this time in best agreement with the ECMWF. As mentioned above, Matthew is getting better organized, and during the next 36 hours or so it should be moving through an area of light vertical wind shear. This should allow strengthening, and the new intensity forecast calls for the system to reach an intensity near 115 kt in about 36 hours. This is near the upper end of the intensity guidance. After 36 hours, proximity to land and increasing shear should cause weakening, and the cyclone is now expected to be down to tropical storm strength by 120 hours. Overall, the intensity forecast is in best agrement with the SHIPS model. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological service and other government officials in that country. 2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane- force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and Georgia. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several days. 4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in Florida and Georgia. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 23.4N 76.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 24.6N 77.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 26.4N 79.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 28.2N 80.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 30.1N 81.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 32.5N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 32.0N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 30.5N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-06 04:52:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EYE OF MATTHEW MOVING NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 the center of MATTHEW was located near 23.4, -76.4 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 32
2016-10-06 04:52:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060252 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 ...EYE OF MATTHEW MOVING NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 76.4W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF NASSAU ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued north of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch has been issued north of Savannah River to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * North of Golden Beach to Fernandina Beach * Lake Okeechobee A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Golden Beach * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 76.4 West. Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight and Thursday. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and Nassau overnight, then very near the east coast of the Florida peninsula Thursday night through Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected during the next 24-36 hours, and Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas and spread into the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Thursday. Winds will gradually diminish over the southeastern Bahamas tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Thursday and will spread northward Thursday night and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first expected in Florida by early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Georgia and South Carolina by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area on the Florida Gulf Coast on Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...1 to 3 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River...5 to 8 ft Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life- threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast from Deerfield Beach to Fernandina Beach. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: Eastern Cuba...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Central Cuba...3 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Coastal eastern Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central and eastern Cuba. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days, and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-06 02:12:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT MATTHEW HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY... ...IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... As of 8:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 the center of MATTHEW was located near 23.0, -76.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 31A
2016-10-06 02:12:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060012 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 800 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 CORRECT DISTANCE FROM NASSAU ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT MATTHEW HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY... ...IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 76.0W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF NASSAU ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line * Lake Okeechobee A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Savannah River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Golden Beach * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 76.0 West. Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track, Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, and is expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by tomorrow night. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The recent weakening is likely to be short-lived, as Matthew as expected to intensify later tonight and Thursday. The hurricane is expected to remain at a category 3 or stronger intensity while it moves through the Bahamas and approaches the east coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas and spread into the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Thursday. Winds will gradually diminish over the southeastern Bahamas tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Thursday and will spread northward Thursday night and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first expected in Florida by early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida and Georgia by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area on the Florida Gulf Coast on Thursday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are still possible along the north coast of central and eastern Cuba through this evening. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: Eastern Cuba...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Central Cuba...3 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Western Haiti...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals of 40 inches The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Coastal eastern Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern and northwestern Haiti and central and eastern Cuba. Rainfall will diminish across Jamaica and the Dominican Republic this evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River...5 to 8 ft Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life- threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast from Deerfield Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Savannah River. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days, and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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