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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-05 22:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW ON ITS WAY TO THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 the center of MATTHEW was located near 22.5, -75.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 31
2016-10-05 22:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 052038 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 ...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW ON ITS WAY TO THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 75.7W ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SSE OF NASSAU ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward from Fernandina Beach to Savannah River. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from north of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River. The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Watches and Warnings for Cuba. The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line * Lake Okeechobee A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Savannah River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Golden Beach * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 75.7 West. Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track, Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, and is expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by tomorrow night. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Matthew is expected to remain at category 3 or stronger while it moves through the Bahamas and approaches the east coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Ragged Island in the Bahamas recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h), and a minimum pressure of 985 mb (29.09 inches). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas and spread into the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Thursday. Winds will gradually diminish over the southeastern Bahamas tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Thursday and will spread northward Thursday night and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first expected in Florida by early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida and Georgia by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area on the Florida Gulf Coast on Thursday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are still possible along the north coast of central and eastern Cuba through this evening. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: Eastern Cuba...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Central Cuba...3 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Western Haiti...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals of 40 inches The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Coastal eastern Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern and northwestern Haiti and central and eastern Cuba. Rainfall will diminish across Jamaica and the Dominican Republic this evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River...5 to 8 ft Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life- threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast from Deerfield Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Savannah River. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days, and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 31
2016-10-05 22:38:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 052038 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO SAVANNAH RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO SUWANNEE RIVER. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA... ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND RAGGED ISLAND * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...EXUMA...RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR...AND CAT ISLAND * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SAVANNAH RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHOKOLOSKEE TO GOLDEN BEACH * FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD * FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO SUWANNEE RIVER INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND IN THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 75.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 75.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 75.4W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N 76.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.6N 78.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.2N 79.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.0N 80.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 32.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 32.6N 76.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 75.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-05 19:41:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW BEARING DOWN ON THE BAHAMAS AND AIMING TOWARD FLORIDA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 the center of MATTHEW was located near 22.1, -75.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 30A
2016-10-05 19:41:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 051741 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 ...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW BEARING DOWN ON THE BAHAMAS AND AIMING TOWARD FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 75.3W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNE OF CABO LUCRECIA CUBA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line * Lake Okeechobee A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Chokoloskee to Golden Beach * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward * Florida Bay Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. The Hurricane Watch and Hurricane Warning for Cuba will likely be discontinued later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 75.3 West. Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track, Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas today and tomorrow, and is expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Matthew is expected to remain at category 3 or stronger while it moves through the Bahamas and approaches the east coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to gradually diminish over portions of eastern Cuba today. These conditions will continue over the southeastern Bahamas, and will spread over the central Bahamas later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Thursday and will spread northward Thursday night and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first expected in Florida by early Thursday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Eastern Jamaica...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 12 inches The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Coastal east-central Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line...3 to 5 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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