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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-20 16:52:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TEDDY RESUMES A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION, TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING TONIGHT... ...RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 20 the center of Teddy was located near 28.3, -62.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 33
2020-09-20 16:52:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 201451 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...TEDDY RESUMES A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION, TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING TONIGHT... ...RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 62.8W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. Interests in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 62.8 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight and then Teddy is forecast to continue generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda tonight, and the center should pass east of the island Monday morning. Teddy should be approaching Nova Scotia on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Teddy is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Monday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Teddy remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda tonight and could continue into Monday night. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2020-09-20 16:52:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 201451 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) X(30) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 28(40) X(40) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 27(44) X(44) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 14(50) X(50) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 20(56) X(56) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 49(53) 6(59) X(59) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 54(56) 4(60) X(60) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 1(36) X(36) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 14 38(52) 14(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) BERMUDA 50 X 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 33
2020-09-20 16:50:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 201449 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANANDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 62.8W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..510NE 270SE 420SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 62.8W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 62.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.2N 63.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 170SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.0N 62.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...280NE 200SE 200SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...350NE 270SE 290SW 310NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.8N 63.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 50 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. 34 KT...350NE 330SE 290SW 280NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.7N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...310NE 280SE 260SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...190NE 250SE 200SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 53.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 60.5N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 62.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-20 13:45:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TEDDY JOGS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST... ...SWELLS FROM TEDDY COULD GENERATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 8:00 AM AST Sun Sep 20 the center of Teddy was located near 28.0, -62.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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