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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 31A
2020-09-20 07:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200548 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 200 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...SWELLS FROM TEDDY AFFECTING MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS... ...RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 61.6W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 61.6 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the north is expected by tonight followed by a faster northward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday night, and the center will pass just east of the island Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected beginning later today. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). Teddy's wind field is likely to become even larger over the next few days. NOAA buoy 41049 recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) about 85 miles (137 km) west of the center of Teddy. The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda as early as tonight and could linger into Monday night. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-20 04:57:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 02:57:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 02:57:43 GMT
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 31
2020-09-20 04:54:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200254 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Some convective cells have been developing within Teddy's large outer eye, and it is possible that this convection is forming an inner eyewall. In any event, observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds have decreased slightly, to near 100 kt. The hurricane is expected to remain in a low shear environment until tomorrow evening, and to more or less maintain its intensity for 12-24 hours. Thereafter, increasing shear associated with an upper-level trough to the west should cause weakening. Although the shear is predicted by the global models to become fairly strong after 48 hours, the system has a a very large and intense circulation so only slow weakening is expected. By 72 hours, Teddy should merge with a frontal zone to the east of New England and become a strong extratropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. The system's wind field will likely become even larger as the wind field of Teddy interacts within a high pressure system behind a cold front during the next few days. This could prolong the period of strong winds over Bermuda into Monday night. Teddy continues on a general northwestward track or about 315/11 kt. The hurricane should move on the western side of a subtropical high pressure area for the next day or so, and then begin to accelerate northward ahead of a strong mid-tropospheric trough that develops into a cutoff low off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days. The interaction of Teddy with this low will likely result in a slight leftward bend of the track around days 2-3. In 4-5 days, post-tropical Teddy is likely to turn north-northeastward to northeastward in the flow on the east side of a broad 500 mb trough. The official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. The extent of 12-foot or higher seas associated with Teddy continues to increase. See the Key Message below regarding swells caused by the hurricane. Key Messages: 1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday, tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning Sunday evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 27.3N 61.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 29.6N 63.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 31.6N 62.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 35.7N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 39.7N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 42.5N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/0000Z 49.5N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 25/0000Z 57.0N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2020-09-20 04:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 200253 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 3(28) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 3(51) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 50(54) 3(57) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 49(55) 1(56) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 2(28) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 38(55) X(55) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 44(63) 1(64) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 1(30) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 24(66) 1(67) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 18(29) X(29) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 21(60) X(60) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 14(27) X(27) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 7(30) 1(31) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) X(23) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 3 18(21) 24(45) 6(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) BERMUDA 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-20 04:53:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... ...CAUSING RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of Teddy was located near 27.3, -61.2 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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